The Third Leader: The birth of a dilemma

A fter the funeral and the wedding, a birth. Congratulations, Charles and Sarah Kennedy. Welcome, Donald James Kennedy: may you grow up to be healthy, wealthy, wise and an Independent reader.

A fter the funeral and the wedding, a birth. Congratulations, Charles and Sarah Kennedy. Welcome, Donald James Kennedy: may you grow up to be healthy, wealthy, wise and an Independent reader.

A tricky business, though, babies and politics. The leading text is, of course, Mr Pickwick at Eatanswill, eyewitness to the splendid efforts of the Honourable Samuel Slumkey to gain election: "'He has patted the babies on the head' ... A roar of applause rent the air ... 'He has kissed one of 'em' ... A second roar ...' He has kissed another' ... A third roar ... 'He's kissing 'em all!'"

Terrific when it works; as any parent knows, though, you do run the risk of having an explosion on your hands. It's more than 20 years ago, but I can still summon the scream, the fear in the eyes, and the sheer ferocity of the recoil of one young creature approached by Mrs Thatcher. Mind you, a couple of grown men shifted pretty uneasily as well.

That's other people's babies. Theoretically, the closer the link with the freshness, vigour and innocence of new life, the bigger the vicarious benefit. But again, tricky. What, for example, was your reaction when you heard that Leo Blair, at the age of 18 months, had wished Jacques Chirac happy birthday ... in French? Exactly.

So how do the other parties react to Donald? Should Tony and Gordon now go off to spend a proportional amount of time with Leo and John? Is it time to unleash Ruth Kelly?

For their part, the Tories shouldn't panic, yet. The conventional wisdom is that the follically challenged don't win. But what about Churchill in 1951? And who do all babies most closely resemble? Indeed. Take heart, Michael Howard! Sorry? William Hague? Ah, yes. I told you it was tricky.