This domino theory is a dangerous delusion

The US and UK have never cared about freedom for Arabs or any others in the so-called Third World

So now we know, or should know, say the patriotic acolytes who supported the Blair and Bush crusade, who excused, covered up, denied the blatant lies. This war on Iraq has apparently heralded the light of freedom and a surge of democratic will. Tyranny and state oppression will soon be defunct in the old lands of Abraham and beyond.

Those of us who still won't dance in the streets with pride and joy that we "liberated" Iraq are now asked to admit, concede, agree or reluctantly surrender to the view that out of this war is emerging a brave new world. Blair calls it "the ripple effect" and, like Bush, he is now even more confirmed in his belief that he is one of the two chosen new world prophets, who suffers for the good he has been called upon to do.

So we must thank him and bow to his wisdom and tactics. For it is because we bombed the hell out of Iraq (just don't ask how many civilian casualties there have been as a result of our actions) that the multitudes in Lebanon have started up a clamour for a more independent and democratic nation. They must have said to each other in the hookah cafés, "Great guys, Bush and Blair. See, Allah smiles on Iraqis. We are so unlucky that they never came here with their big weapons. Poor us, we must do it for ourselves."

And the Palestinian leaders have been scared into becoming world statesmen because we showed them who is boss. Sharon is turning over a new leaf too. And surely Saudi Arabia is but minutes away from universal suffrage because the regime has learnt the right lessons. There has also been a massive, unexpected harvest of the largest, plumpest pineapples in the deserts of Algeria, and the waters of the Nile have started tasting of vanilla, more miraculous signs that what we did in Iraq was good and right and blessed. I don't know which is worse - the gloating, the outrageous claims, or the seriously alarming delusions which quickly pervert facts and turn them into reassuring platitudes.

We have been here before, which is why this latest fragrant justification will not cover up or wash off the mendacity and deceit that cling to Tony Blair like a bad odour, a reminder that he is not to be trusted and that he has a vanity which surpasses all understanding.

How vindicated he felt when the war was "won" and Saddam's statue was dragged to the ground. (Later we found out that it was mainly coalition soldiers and a desultory group of Iraqis involved in this act, which was presented by some of the media as equivalent to the fall of the Berlin Wall.) More rejoicing was demanded of us when Saddam's murderous sons were shot dead, his cabal arrested, and then, the victory of victories, his own vile self was dug out of a hole, eyes pathetic, his hold on Iraq gone forever.

But, oh dear, the obtuse Iraqis were not as overwhelmingly grateful as they should have been. They knew what had been done by our side more than we will ever be allowed to know. Mixed with relief that Saddam was gone, there was unease about the occupying power and the beginnings of insurgency by those loyal to the old guard and the arrival of terrorists. But Britons were told by the Prime Minister that all would be well, the violence on the streets was being perpetrated by the enemies of progress.

Then came the Iraqi elections, and yes, that was an extraordinary moment of hope for ordinary Iraqis so long denied their human rights by Saddam Hussein, by our sanctions, and by war. But it was not and still is not the happy ending we have been told it is. Countless Iraqis are dying every day, through acts of violence by suicide bombers and those now bitterly committed to civil war along religious divisions. Our soldiers have been torturing Iraqi prisoners. Children are orphaned in Basra, the punishment of Fallujah has left a black hole. Kidnappings and decapitations happen daily. Much of it is not even reported any more. We are, it seems, bored with this aspect of the story, something the strategists in Downing Street must be delighted about.

Even the outcome of the January elections is bringing forth fresh anxieties. The theocrats who have won the majority of seats in the Iraqi elections want to push women back into subservience. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqi women worldwide are watching this prison being built, and they can do nothing about it. Secular values are unlikely to survive the religious conservatism spreading throughout the country. Elections are not the end of the tragedy of Iraq. Is the degree of brutality the coalition used in that country an acceptable price to pay for the mixed blessings of today? Only Iraqis can morally argue that case. Not many of them do.

Force can sometimes produce relative peace - it did in Uganda when Idi Amin was driven out by Ugandan guerrilla forces and the Tanzanian army. And it worked in Bosnia where there was agreement that Serb nationalism was destroying the region. The democratic revolutions in the old Soviet bloc and the changes in Russia arose because a time comes when the imperative for freedom and change becomes unstoppable. As in Ukraine recently. Of course the games played by the Western powers may have an impact on the upheavals. But these powers did not unilaterally decide on the destinies of these nations and coerce, dominate and humiliate the "free" citizens.

The "ripple" claims are both absurd and dangerous. Why not go further back in time to seek cause and effect? Why not give credit for these welcome rumbles of change across the Middle East to the 11 September attacks by al-Qaida in the US? If those hadn't happened, then the Taliban wouldn't have fallen, and it would have been business as usual with the US doing deals with Taliban, and Arab dictators and the cosy friendship between the House of Bush and the House of Saud growing ever more strong. The US and UK have never cared about human rights and freedom for Arabs or others in the so-called Third World. When they suddenly claim they do, their motives are always suspect, and rightly.

As an acquaintance of mine, a Jordanian professor, says in a furious e-mail he wrote after hearing these claims of the virtuous domino effect:

"Do they think we are so stupid? Yes they must think Arabs are stupid to believe that their democratic longings will come out of this state terror of the UK and the US and Israel. They wish to legitimise this illegal invasion.

"It is correct that in all the Arab countries we have more dissent, more questions, more daring politics. But that is because we now have al-Jazeera and we see Ukraine and admire India. We don't want another generation of our children living in feudal countries where they are always afraid of speaking out.

"Many used to go to America and the UK to escape. Now that is getting harder because of all these new laws in those countries and also because they don't feel safe going abroad. I have started research among young people in Jordan and Syria and Egypt. They hate their rulers, but they hate the US and UK much more. That is making them hungry for more rights."

American and British saviours are unlikely to be distracted by these realities. Much better for them and us that we believe they are supermen delivering us from evil.

y.alibhai-brown@independent.co.uk