The far right knows exactly how to capitalise on a crisis like coronavirus

The economic downturn and the impact of the pandemic on our lives provides the conditions in which the far right thrives, enlarging the pool of potential recruits and blurring lines with the political mainstream

First, a meteoric rise in infections, hospitalisations and, sadly, deaths. Second, the economic turmoil caused by lockdown restrictions imposed to control the spread of the virus. The impact of Covid-19 has been felt immediately.

Immediate, too, has been the response of the far right.

Just weeks into the pandemic, far-right groups were already highly visible, not missing a beat. White supremacists in the US discussed ways to spread the disease to Jewish communities, prompting warnings from the FBI, while groups in the UK spread disinformation about Muslims breaching the lockdown.

As we start to grapple with the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic beyond lockdown, discussion has turned to how it will impact us over the longer term. Are we really prepared for a second wave? What degree of economic scarring can our societies withstand? Our report asks the same questions about the far right. What has it achieved during lockdown? And what could it potentially achieve once we are out of it?

The virus has certainly enabled the far right to show its flair for conspiratorial thinking. Multiple conspiracy theories about the origins and spread of the pandemic have emerged, with an endless, predictable list of scapegoats: Jews, Muslims, Israel, the CIA, China, George Soros, and even the UN. Some of these conspiracies have made the leap from fringe online circles into the mainstream.

It’s not just words; the spread of conspiracy theories has already contributed to a rise in antisemitic hate speech, hate crimes and even acts of vandalism, such as setting fire to 5G masts in the UK because of the bizarre theory that they are the true cause of the pandemic.

Beyond conspiracy theories, economic concerns over lockdown have also created an opening for the far right to promote anti-establishment sentiment. Nearly all strands of the far right showed some level of distrust for the measures taken to combat the spread of the virus. To some neo-Nazi movements, lockdown was more sinister still – a ruse to surreptitiously impose a police state and take freedoms away. It is, therefore, not surprising that far-right groups and activists have been at the front line of anti-lockdown protests, yet it is worrying how quickly this political faction has managed to capitalise on the current crisis – even to the point of plotting a terror attack at a hospital to garner media attention.

As countries begin to ease out of lockdown and international attention shifts gears, the far right may look elsewhere for self-promotion. Developments in these months point to a high degree of adaptability and opportunism, which we can expect to provide a boost to the far right in the longer term. As soon as a vaccine is announced, we can anticipate that the far right will mobilise around harnessing and spreading “anti-vaxx” sentiment. If these extremists can blend with more mainstream movements promoting the same message, this could pose a magnified threat to health security.

As the lockdown has shown, the effects of the pandemic are not solely health-related. The economic downturn that our societies will suffer and the social impact of the pandemic on our lives provide some of the material conditions in which the far right may thrive, enlarging the pool of potential recruits and blurring the lines between the far right and the mainstream.

Seldom have we seen such a combination of what experts in extremism call “push factors” at play: rising unemployment; fears over economic stability; mental health issues; personal loss; and divisive political rhetoric. And worryingly, some of the key demographics targeted by recruiters – including young people – will be on the receiving end of this.

It does not help that far-right groups have already framed this crisis as a side effect of globalisation – an explanation that might sound appealing to those who feel “left behind”. While recent polls in Europe do not paint the far right as a winner, far-right parties will nevertheless try to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the pandemic to demand border closures and crackdowns on immigration.

For now, policy makers will be rightly focused on bringing the virus under control and mitigating the economic impacts of lockdown. But they would be wise to consider how Covid-19 may have provided a boost to the far right, with all the dangers to political and economic stability that this entails.

Cristina Ariza is a research analyst in the extremism policy unit at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change