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When we finally take bee deaths seriously, it may already be too late for humanity

The same terrible sense of denial and complacency we first witnessed with this pandemic is still present in our attitudes towards the mass extinction of insects

Sean O'Grady
Wednesday 20 May 2020 17:08 BST
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Take away one substantial part of any ecosystem – such as pollination by insects – and you cannot know for sure what the eventual effects would be
Take away one substantial part of any ecosystem – such as pollination by insects – and you cannot know for sure what the eventual effects would be

In his famous book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, published in 2007, Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses the effects of events that come as a major surprise to us. The name references the discovery of real-life black swans in south Australia in the 18th century, disproving the previous popular notion of a “black swan”, used to illustrate an amusing oxymoronic impossibility, one that need not trouble us. The point is that we need to prepare for “black swan events”, or, some might add, prevent them.

Could the mass extinction of bees and other pollinating insects be the world’s next “black swan event”?

You could well argue it is already happening. I am no more a conservationist than I am a financier or an epidemiologist, but it is certainly the case that bee populations are declining, for a variety of reasons, and that that could have unpredictable effects on ecosystems, including on the commercial crops that depend on them.

Of course, it is true (this is the relatively good news) that many staple foods such as wheat, corn, soya beans and potatoes are not dependent on bees for pollination and survival. Nor are fish. So in terms of calorific sustenance, humans might be able to survive the extinction of the bees and enjoy a plate of fish and chips, but that is still debatable. Take away one substantial part of any ecosystem such as pollination by insects – and you cannot know for sure what the eventual effects would be for the survival of life on Earth.

We would, though, more certainly lose a huge amount of diversity in our diet, and foods, and drinks, that we love. Like not being able to meet friends or shake hands today, we can live without avocados, apples, almonds, turnips, kiwi fruit, Brussels sprouts, strawberries, courgettes, mangos, coffee and blueberries, to name just a few treats that would disappear or become scarce luxuries – but why should we? Some people love guacamole, and others actually do need almond milk. Do we want to live in a land of milk but no honey?

Ball-rolling study shows complex learning patterns amongst bees

Taleb’s ideas had an obvious and painful resonance during the financial crash of 2008, and do again now with the coronavirus pandemic. These were, broadly, black swan events in that few, before they happened, conceived of the impact that would have. The mountains of debt, risk and fraud that built up in the financial world before everything started to collapse in 2008 were thought manageable. Lehman Brothers was not about to go bust, and the cash machines in Britain were not about to stop giving out cash. We all know what happened next. I need hardly describe what Covid-19 is doing to our way of life.

Of course, the climate crisis is the black swan event – or, rather, the process of our future times – to end all events, and the sad story of the bees only a small part of it. It is not a big surprise to hear about climate change, true, but there is that same terrible sense of denial and complacency about it that we witnessed, and now regret, in the approach of past economic disasters and pandemics. Humans, as Taleb pointed out, have many weaknesses and one of them is to generally take too much for granted too easily and for far too long; this includes the bees.

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