America and China need to cooperate on North Korea – before Kim Jong-un extends his violence beyond the borders

The Middle East which has been at the centre of the West’s focus since 9/11. Yet throughout this period, the rogue regime which has the greatest potential to damage global security – North Korea – has remained largely unaffected by attempts to bring it to heel

North Korea announced on Friday that it had carried out a successful nuclear test (Reuters)

The last 15 years have seen several attempts by the West to grapple with rogue regimes that are or were regarded as a threat to the wider world. Military action, notably in Iraq and Afghanistan, may have made current administrations in the US and Europe wary of foreign ground wars. In the meantime though, Syria seems broadly immune to a diplomatic solution and has become a proxy conflict involving the air forces of Russia, America, Britain and Turkey, among others. Special forces have made incursions on the ground too, despite concern over committing troops to foreign soil. Less explicit support of the various factions has come from several directions.

One way or another then, it is the Middle East which has been at the centre of the West’s focus since the September 11 attacks: inevitable, perhaps, bearing in mind the terrorism inspired by extremist groups in the region against targets in Europe and the United States.

Yet throughout this period, the rogue regime which has the greatest potential to damage global security – North Korea – has remained largely unaffected by attempts to bring it to heel. Indeed, since George W Bush identified the country among his list of rogue states, it has become more closed, and more hostile, to the rest of the world than ever.

The falls of Saddam Hussein, the Taliban and Colonel Gaddafi have done nothing to convince Pyongyang of the need to find a roadmap towards peaceful relations with perceived enemies. Instead, foreign military adventures by America have spurred on North Korea’s desire to develop nuclear weapons. In the paranoid mind of Kim Jong-un (who turns out to be even more maniacal than his father), it is only by strength of arms that his nation can meet real and imagined adversaries.

Yesterday’s apparently successful nuclear test is proof – if it were needed – that North Korea’s atomic ambitions are resolutely undiminished. Claims in January that it had exploded a hydrogen bomb were greeted with scepticism; there is little doubt this time that the test represents a dangerous advance of the state’s military capability. The seismic repercussions of the explosion have been matched in their seriousness only by the degree of condemnation from global powers, including North Korea’s neighbours. Japan’s Prime Minister has described Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programme as a “grave threat”. Most tellingly of all, North Korea’s traditional ally, China, has said in no uncertain terms that it is “firmly opposed” to the test.

For the past two decades there has been a degree of certainty that North Korea would ultimately step back from the brink of any conflict, held by the constraining hand of Beijing. Paradoxically, unilateral action by the West to halt Kim Jong-un’s weapons programmes has always been unlikely because of concern an adverse Chinese reaction (quite aside from any other considerations). A delicate balance has been preserved.

The danger now is that advances in the nuclear technology available to Pyongyang, allied to improvements in its military’s missile delivery systems, has disturbed the status quo. It has been apparent for some time that Kim Jong-un is capable of both decisive and vindictive violence. The brutal purging of “traitors” – one by artillery round, another by anti-aircraft battery and so on – has provided ample, grim evidence. The question for the rest of the world is whether he is intent on inflicting a different type of violence beyond North Korea’s borders.

China’s note of concern over the latest test may be sufficient to make its dictatorial neighbour change tack. What some in the West will wonder is whether Beijing’s unusual firmness is indicative of a new anxiety that an increasingly weaponised Kim Jong-un is no longer as controllable as once he was.

If that proves the case, the West and China will need to work together to determine an effective response to what could soon become a perilous situation.