Which way Belarus turns depends more on Moscow than Minsk

Editorial: In Belarus, as in Ukraine before it, the pull of the EU and western values challenges Russia’s traditional hegemony, and Russia is determined to resist it

If Lukashenko can somehow ride out the challenge to his authority, the Kremlin will be well pleased (AP)

Conventional democratic leaders do not usually feel the need to carry an assault weapon as they go about their duties, still less to have photographs of themselves fully armed, in case the approaching mob catches up with them, plastered all over social media. Alexander Lukashenko, the increasingly beleaguered dictator of Belarus, however, is no conventional leader; and his fate and that of his country will not be decided through conventional means.

It seems increasingly likely that, wily and ruthless as he undoubtedly is, Lukashenko will fail to achieve the ultimate ambition of all dictators throughout history – to die peacefully in his own bed. For one thing, the protesters in Minsk – and increasingly in other parts of Belarus – show no signs of going away. They may have been blocked from staging a mass protest dangerously close to the presidential palace, but they are making their displeasure about the rigged election and the stagnation of their country plain whenever they can.

Like other revolutions in the former soviet bloc over the past three decades, there is a momentum to such popular movements that is difficult if not impossible to contain, and certainly not without the Russians helpfully crushing dissent. A nation of 9 million that yearns for change surely cannot be denied it, even if their ruler unleashes the army on them? The people, through protests, strikes and civil disobedience, will surely have their final say? Lukashenko is weaker than he looks. Will the Kremlin save him?