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A Final Say vote might even yield in Theresa May’s favour – she has no other option at this stage

May’s suggestion that MPs might like to give up the European Union for Lent struck a bum note when yet more companies are threatening to move jobs out of the UK

Wednesday 06 March 2019 16:21 GMT
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James O'Brien reads out Brexit promises proven to be wrong

Diplomats, more than most, are inclined to use discreet euphemisms. “Robust discussions” usually mean “blazing row”; “constructive talks” may be rightly derided as “we didn’t get anywhere”; “exchange of views” is a polite way of saying “exchange of insults”. And so on.

So when European Union officials emerge blearily from talks with the British on Brexit and brief the media that “while the talks take place in a constructive atmosphere, discussions have been difficult” and that “no solution has been identified at this point that is consistent with the withdrawal agreement” then it is time to be doubly worried. Doubly, of course, because the putative Brexit day is about three weeks away.

With what we must assume is some candour, the exasperated Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, has gone so far as to declare that he had “no legal texts or draft legal texts to consider” following several rounds of meetings between the UK and EU. So, yes, pretty bad.

In that context, Theresa May’s attempt to make light of matters at Prime Minister’s Questions, while no doubt well intentioned, seemed in poor taste. Suggesting MPs might like to give up the European Union for Lent struck a bum note when yet more companies are threatening to move jobs out of the UK. When the Department of Health and Social Care has admitted to stockpiling body bags in case of a hard Brexit, it is no time for levity.

So the chances are, as they have been, that Ms May, the attorney general Geoffrey Cox and the Brexit secretary Patrick Barclay will return from Brussels as close to empty-handed as it is possible to be without comprehensive humiliation. For some Tory backbenchers looking for any excuse to fall back into line, any warm words will be seized upon. For the rest, and especially for the Democratic Unionists and the tougher personalities in the European Research Group, a proto-Brexit party, it’s a foregone conclusion that they will not be satisfied.

Defeat, once again, looks like a distinct possibility for Ms May. Her focus on maintaining the option of a no-deal Brexit looks increasingly desperate. As a negotiating ploy, no deal is virtually useless for two reasons. First, that it is openly acknowledged by all concerned to be a bluff – no one believes Ms May, the sensible, responsible public servant would go through with it. Second, it is an act mostly of self-harm, a threat that if the EU doesn’t like what is happening then the British will retire into a corner and start banging their heads against the wall.

The better news from recent days are the increasing signs that the pressure of time is now working against Ms May. Brexit on 29 March is simply impractical, whatever happens. In any case, her no deal threat seems certain to be lifted next week, no matter what she says or does. She has an obviously diminished authority over her party, even as things stand. She cannot prevent the House of Commons, this close to the deadline, from rejecting the no-deal scenario for good. At most, 100 MPs actively want such an outcome, and perhaps the same again would agree to supply Ms May with her bogus threat by voting to keep the options on the table. The others – opposition parties, Tory rebels and ministers in her own administration – would abstain or vote against. No deal will shortly be dead. At worst, the UK will leave on 29 March on Ms May’s terms, such as they are. At best, we will secure more time for a Final Say referendum on the terms she and the EU have actually agreed upon, even if parliament has not approved them. What will not happen on 29 March is that the UK starts to deal with the EU on World Trade Organisation terms, with the chaos and sharp recession that would swiftly ensue.

Parliament, then, is in deadlock. The UK and the EU are in deadlock. There is an obvious solution to this, albeit one the prime minister is unwilling to accept. Unable to secure the agreement of parliament for her package – the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration – she should take her case to the country and fight for it against the option of staying in the EU. She might even win, and all the authority that has drained away from her since the snap election last year went so disastrously wrong will be restored. She will, for the first time, have a mandate to follow her policy through, and one her critics cannot argue with. If she loses, at least she will be able to go with great honour. If she wins, then her personal standing could not be higher. A Final Say referendum is the right thing to do. It is inevitable with a Commons in stasis, and it might yield in Ms May’s favour. “Bring it on” should be the uncoded message form No 10.

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