Britain is set to overtake Germany, and it's good news for us all

Nations with younger populations, other things being equal, are more able to fund their welfare states than those with ageing ones

British flags fly at sunset (2014 Getty Images)

Perhaps if the great immigration debate were recast as the great demographics debate we would see the position of Britain in Europe, and in the wider world economy, in a more sober light. For the Tory think tank, the Centre for Policy Studies – not, on this occasion, head-banging for either side in the referendum debate, points out two salient facts about the high levels of immigration to the UK that many are assuming will persist in the coming years.

First – and something of interest to anyone who hopes to live long enough to see retirement –immigration means a much lower dependency ratio than would otherwise be the case, meaning that the bill for the state pension is spread over many more younger people of working age.

Contrary to the idle caricature of sponging, thieving work-shy types, most immigrants – economic migrants or refugees – are younger, hard-working, and sometimes entrepreneurial. Thus, nations with younger populations, other things being equal, are more able to fund their welfare states than those with ageing ones.

Japan and German, though prosperous, have precisely this problem; America and Britain, with higher inward migration, less so. It is a fundamental and timeless fact of demographics, and holds whether or not we stay in the EU.

Second, on current trends (admittedly a hazardous assumption) the UK will overtake Germany as the most populous nation in the EU sometime in the 2030s, even with the recent influx of Syrians in Germany. That will mean that Britain will have the greatest single voice in the EU Council of Ministers, the European Parliament and various other European bodies.

In due course the British will also have Europe’s largest economy – by dint of weight of population rather than productivity, admittedly, but a remarkable opportunity to lead the continent in the middle decades of the 21st century.

It may be scant recompense for all the ills that some perceive in the European project, but it is an intriguing prospect, nonetheless. The ‘Great Overtake’ of Germany (though possibly not on the football field) seems to be on.