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Delay may simply push the peak of coronavirus to next winter

Editorial: Paradoxically, if non-infected people decide to self-isolate now, they may only succeed in delaying the worst point of the outbreak too far back in the year

Thursday 12 March 2020 23:40 GMT
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Johnson holds a press conference addressing the government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak
Johnson holds a press conference addressing the government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak

“Squash that sombrero” was Boris Johnson’s typically colourful summary of the best way to deal with the coronavirus outbreak, referring to the graphic showing the shape of the coronavirus cases expected in the coming months.

At his press conference, flanked again by his senior medical and scientific advisers, the prime minister did not venture much further into the field of epidemiology, which was probably just as well. He did, though, take the opportunity to “level” with the British people, with the warning that “loved ones” will be lost, taken before their time. It was the most sombre reckoning to take place in Downing Street in many years; and it will not be the last. The chief scientific adviser tells us that the peak rate of Covid-19 cases will arrive in about 10 to 14 weeks’ time – well into the summer months.

Contrary to some of the population, the government, guided by the science, is not, after all, going to implement draconian measures as we enter the “delay” phase of the action plan. The new announcements relating to England were relatively modest, compared to the “lockdowns” in China and Italy, the Scottish government’s ban on gatherings of more than 500 people, and Ireland’s decision to close its schools until the end of March, for example. International school trips are off, as are cruises, and people with the slightest hints of coronavirus symptoms are asked to self-isolate for a week. Extra care should be taken when meeting elderly people. That, though, is about it.

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