Scientists are right to urge caution about relaxing the lockdown, but it is still early days

Editorial: We should hope that the prime minister and those around him keep open minds, are led by evidence and do not fixate on ‘saving Christmas’

Chief medical officer for England Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance in Downing Street (Leon Neal/Getty)

The government’s scientists have warned that England will need tighter restrictions on social mixing than the previous regime of regional tiers when the current lockdown ends on 2 December. They are right to be cautious, but it would be a mistake to become fixed on any policy at this stage, 10 days into a 28-day period. 

So far, most of the evidence suggests that infections are still rising, although there is some evidence that the rise is levelling off. Because of the time lags involved, if the rate of increase is slowing this would reflect the effect of measures before the lockdown itself was introduced. 

The sensible approach, therefore, is to wait. We should be prepared for a range of possibilities, but when we come to the end of the lockdown, the decision about what to do next should be taken as late as possible, on the most up-to-date evidence.