Michael Cohen’s revelations may prove uncomfortable for Trump – but he will remain safe from impeachment

The barriers to a successful impeachment of the president are high, necessarily so as it should be no easy matter to unseat an incumbent duly elected by the American people

Mr Cohen was in the habit of recording phone conversations, and various prosecuting authorities have in their hands a wealth of information raided from his law firm and home already (AP)

For a man once described as Donald Trump’s “fixer”, Michael Cohen is doing quite an effective job in fixing his old boss. The “pitbull” lawyer has turned on Trump. Few business tycoons are able to keep many secrets from their lawyers, and it seems that Mr Cohen is singing like a canary in an old film noir to the FBI about his time as the president’s personal counsel.

Having been convicted of lying to congress about some putative plans to build a Trump Tower in Moscow – and sent to jail for three years – it is now reported that Mr Cohen is telling anyone who will listen – including the Mueller probe – that Mr Trump himself instructed him to lie to congress about the scheme. It has prompted further calls for the impeachment of the president, and the grounds would seem to qualify for the kind of high crime and misdemeanour envisaged in the US Constitution, and thus be sufficient for congress to initiate proceedings. Indeed, during his confirmation hearing with the Senate, William Barr, Mr Trump’s nominee for the new attorney general, said explicitly that a president “convincing a witness to change testimony” would be obstruction of justice.

A serious matter, then, but very likely not the end of the tale. Mr Cohen will be testifying, under oath, to the House Oversight Committee on 7 February, which should be a rich source of fresh and damaging revelations about Mr Cohen’s time with the president. Mr Cohen was in the habit of recording phone conversations, and various prosecuting authorities have in their hands a wealth of information raided from his law firm and home already.

Mr Cohen’s newly candid attitude may yet yield more information about the president’s dealings, direct and indirect, with the models Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal, with Russian interests, business and political, fundraising and the conduct of the 2016 Trump presidential campaign, Mr Trump’s business activities more generally, what members of the Trump family may have known about controversial issues, and much else besides. It should make for entertaining viewing. The congressmen and women might even think of asking whether it is true that Mr Cohen paid someone to use social media to persuade a sceptical world that he was “sexy”.

All that said, the barriers to a successful impeachment of the president are high, necessarily so as it should be no easy matter to unseat an incumbent duly elected by the American people. Crucially, a successful prosecution of Mr Trump, assuming he is still in office, would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate. The Democrats are some way short of that and, disdainful as many of them are to Mr Trump, it seems improbable that sufficient Republicans would defect to end Mr Trump’s time in office. It will be a slow process, by which time Mr Trump might have decided not to run for a second term, and would be spending more time with his money.

It is also an uncomfortable truth – a word to be used with care – that many in Mr Trump’s “base” will either dismiss the accusations against him as baseless Democrat machinations, or don’t care in any case. For them, what matters is Mr Trump’s ability to deliver on the pledges he made to them in the election – on jobs and the economy, on immigration and the Wall, on America’s national security, bringing the troops home, repealing Obamacare and cutting taxes. On most of these Mr Trump has something to show for his two years in office (the anniversary falls on Sunday). He was even able to limit the expected losses he suffered in the midterm elections.

He is, also, famously combative in defending himself, to the point of vindictiveness. His refusal to provide official air transport for speaker Nancy Pelosi’s foreign visits is evidence of that, and of the deep partisan hostility that has grown between the two parties. All of that means that the president will be more likely to see a determined effort to try and impeach him – but also that its chances of ultimately removing him from office, or even preventing him winning a second term, are poor.