Common sense – which can be overrated in epidemiology – suggests that tightening up travel arrangements through testing and quarantine periods cannot, in the end, prevent a coronavirus entering a country. The imperfections in testing, human error and human behaviour will always militate against such restrictions. Pandemics bear their designation for a reason.
Still, it is possible that some effort to restrict travel might have slowed the arrival of the virus last spring, and it is never too late to act as a virus mutates into potentially more deadly forms, or ones where existing vaccines are less effective. As with hygiene, social distancing and lockdowns, the aim is, or should be, to buy time to analyse the threat and bolster other defences, such as a test and trace system, or delivery of a vaccine system.
This is precisely where the UK stands now, and why travel restrictions – negative Covid-19 tests plus quarantine – are so sensible. The new vaccines – a third freshly approved – are on the move. Despite disturbing reports of missed deliveries, progress is being made, and public awareness and expectations are high. But time will be needed, and hence the lockdowns and onerous obligations on travellers (including the prime minister, who has postponed his trade mission to India). There is no sense in exempting British nationals, as if coronavirus can be repelled by the sight of a UK passport. Indeed for many countries the appearance of the so-called Kent variant makes them wary of travellers from Britain.
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