President Trump is wrong. Ukraine can win this war

Editorial: After peace negotiations broke down abruptly, Ukraine’s European allies must go further and faster to provide the support America won’t

As the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the peace process, such as it is, mirrors more than ever the stalemate on the battlefield – slow, attritional progress getting stuck in the mud of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

Neither side is within sight of anything that resembles victory. Both sides believe that even if they cannot win, they need not, indeed must not, lose or be seen to lose. Hence the lack of urgency in the ceasefire negotiations in Geneva, brokered, with bias to Moscow, by the Americans.

The latest discussions have concluded somewhat abruptly after a mere two hours, and in acrimony. It cannot be treated as a shock development. The Russian side described the situation as “very tense”, and the Ukrainians agreed, calling things “difficult”.

Given his infamous (and entirely unprovoked) mauling in the Oval Office a year ago, Volodymyr Zelensky has learned to be polite if not sycophantic when commenting in public about the Trump administration. That he should go so far as to say that President Trump’s approach to the Ukraine-Russia peace talks was “not fair” suggests a very serious breach in relations with Washington.

Reportedly, this is because Mr Trump, as vocally impatient as ever with Mr Zelensky, packed the American delegation with known Putin sympathisers, which must have been uncomfortable even for his personal envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. In response, Mr Zelensky took the bizarre step of inviting British and French representatives to the peace conference.

The central dispute is about territory, as it has been since the original annexation of Crimea and the most eastern provinces of Ukraine back in 2014, and Donbas is the issue now. The Ukrainians cannot surrender the territory there that they still hold; while the Russians need it for prestige and strategic advantage – a future invasion to reach Kyiv would be much easier if they already occupied the area.

Mr Zelensky was no doubt correct to say Mr Trump was not being fair, but that’s not usually a charge that bothers this former Manhattan real estate broker. He must be wary of so antagonising the Americans that Mr Trump, in his irascible way, pulls the remaining US support for Ukraine – intelligence and sales of equipment via European allies. In a worst-case scenario, Mr Trump might switch sides fully and pursue the declared aim of normalisation of relations with Moscow by lifting trade and diplomatic sanctions.

Zelensky must be wary of antagonising Trump so that he doesn’t pull the remaining US support for Ukraine (AP)

Such scenarios would hold far less terror for Kyiv if Europe was able to replace the US both in terms of arms supplies and meaningful security guarantees if some peace deal is eventually forged.

The EU has proved a poor vehicle for action, not least because of its continuing dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, and the disaffection of at least two member states – Hungary and Slovakia – willing to veto anti-Russian measures. Even Poland, militantly defiant towards Putin, will not commit to a security guarantee of troops to Ukraine because of fears of weakening its own defence. Meanwhile, across the continent, an unholy alliance of complacent, sceptical electorates, populist politicians and miserly finance ministries conspire to thwart efforts to rearm and properly support Ukraine.

It may be said that the story of the tragedy of Ukraine is already in the draft stage. But President Trump is wrong. Ukraine can win this war; the tragedy is that its allies won’t provide the means to do so. Ukraine can prevail by exhausting and weakening the Russians so that they cannot make any further progress – and would then be forced to sue for peace rather than merely pretending to want it. Peace through strength, this time in Ukraine’s favour, would ensue.

The intelligence isn’t entirely clear, but there must be some reason to assume that Russia cannot sustain battlefield casualties of more than 30,000 every month indefinitely, and less so if politically sensitive recruitment in Moscow and St Petersburg continues to be avoided by the Kremlin. The Russian economy is plainly under pressure, and there will come a point when the inflation in living costs is unbearable and the money won’t be there to pay the troops. Far smaller powers, such as Japan and Finland, have humbled Russia in the past.

For now, Putin may be able to rely on the Chinese to prop up his campaign, but that may not prove unconditional or forever – and the EU, a massively more valuable trading partner than Russia, could use this leverage to advantage. Further, if Europe’s leaders managed to unite and give the Ukrainian’s the tools to finish the job – air defence systems, drones and long-range rockets – then a kind of victory and peace could be achieved.

But the longer the Europeans fail to do so, the sooner President Putin will overcome Ukraine and move that much closer to his next targets, and the domination of the continent. It all seems so obvious now that future generations will never understand why so little was done to prevent it.