Trust, votes and a thorny issue for the Labour Party

The Independent's poll today will make interesting reading for the Labour Party. It shows that the party's prospects at the next general election would improve sharply if Gordon Brown, rather than Tony Blair, were leader. And the breakdown in relations between the Prime Minister and his Chancellor, illustrated by their clashing media performances last week, makes this more than an academic exercise. Voices calling on Mr Blair to make way for Mr Brown are likely to grow stronger in the weeks to come. Many Labour MPs will inevitably start to wonder where their interests lie.

The Independent's poll today will make interesting reading for the Labour Party. It shows that the party's prospects at the next general election would improve sharply if Gordon Brown, rather than Tony Blair, were leader. And the breakdown in relations between the Prime Minister and his Chancellor, illustrated by their clashing media performances last week, makes this more than an academic exercise. Voices calling on Mr Blair to make way for Mr Brown are likely to grow stronger in the weeks to come. Many Labour MPs will inevitably start to wonder where their interests lie.

In truth, this poll result is not altogether unexpected. The public's diminished trust in the Prime Minister as a result of his military adventurism in Iraq has been confirmed by poll after poll. Indeed, if reports are to be believed, Mr Blair even admitted it himself when he informed the Chancellor that he was planning to step down in late 2003. The Prime Minister changed his mind about resigning, and has now said that, if elected, he will serve a full third term (much to Mr Brown's chagrin).

Public opinion, though, as our poll shows, has not changed. The muted support the Chancellor gave to the invasion of Iraq makes him a more attractive proposition for Labour voters disaffected by Mr Blair's enthusiastic commitment of British troops to the US-led mission. This suggests the Tories' planned campaign slogan, "Vote Blair, get Brown", could backfire on them.

The animosity between Mr Blair and his Chancellor has been a defining theme of this government since 1997. The events of the past week, when Mr Blair shamelessly sought to steal the limelight from the Chancellor's speech on international development, showed that the bickering now obstructs the business of government. The only saving grace for Labour seems to be that the squabbling is now so familiar that it does not affect the public's general perception of the Government's performance. But there can now be no doubting which of these two giants of current British politics many natural Labour supporters would prefer to see as leader. The crucial next question is whether the Prime Minister can persuade them to change their minds before the election.