What can I learn from my wrong predictions about Brexit?

I need to think about how I can apply those insights to what might happen next

I have looked back over some of my Brexit articles of the past half-year to see if I could learn from what I got wrong.

I started with something I wrote on 6 November. Then, the question was whether the EU and the UK government would ever agree a deal, with the assumption being that, if they failed to do so, we would leave without one. I wrote: “My sources say a no-deal Brexit is likely, but my head says there’s bound to be a deal. Which is right?” Neither, it turned out.

My head was right in that there was a deal – it was agreed the following week – but I didn’t see that parliament would refuse to approve it, and I hadn’t realised there was a third way: that Brexit could be postponed.