As support for Scottish independence rises, things are not all going Nicola Sturgeon’s way

The more independence seems a possibility, the more the SNP can expect to be asked questions about its record in government, writes John Rentoul

Nicola Sturgeon has seen surge of support for Scottish independence during the pandemic (Getty)

The outcry over exam marks in Scotland is a reminder that Nicola Sturgeon cannot actually walk on water. With exams cancelled, pupils have been awarded marks based on schools’ predicted grades, which were then adjusted downwards to match previous years’ averages.

The big problem is that pupils in schools in poorer areas have had their marks downgraded more than those in richer parts and no one is happy.

This matters because education is a weak point for the Scottish National Party. It has been in government in Edinburgh for 13 years, with education a devolved responsibility, and Scotland’s reputation for good schools has been trashed.

It has been nothing short of a work of political genius for Alex Salmond and then Sturgeon to persuade the Scottish people that the SNP has run a good, enlightened and socially just administration and that everything bad is the fault of Westminster. Recently, Sturgeon has been rewarded by a surge of support for independence, which has averaged over 50 per cent this year, possibly assisted by the anti-outsider mentality engendered by the coronavirus.

But the more independence seems a possibility, the more the SNP can expect to be asked questions about its record in government – and about the hard choices that would face the country if it cut itself off from the UK’s sharing of tax revenue.

The polling on independence also seems to have had a galvanising effect on the other parties. Last week the Conservatives replaced Jackson Carlaw as their leader in Scotland, as he concluded rather sadly that he was not up to it. In came Douglas Ross, a young MP who has recently signalled his independence from Boris Johnson by resigning as a minister over the Dominic Cummings Durham dash. And back came Ruth Davidson as a temporary stand-in in the Scottish parliament – the only politician who has consistently got the better of Sturgeon.

The Tories even sent Rishi Sunak to Renfrewshire and the Isle of Bute – the only Tory politician with a net positive opinion-poll rating in Scotland.

Meanwhile, Labour in Scotland is still flat on its back, with Richard Leonard, its leader, forced to declare on Twitter that he will lead the party into the Scottish parliament elections next year.

Of course, Sturgeon and the SNP are riding high and will do well in those elections. But there are clouds on the horizon. They have no way of forcing a UK government to allow a new referendum. The longer they have to wait, and the more life there is in the unionist parties, the more the SNP’s record – particularly on education – is going to haunt the first minister.

Yours,

John Rentoul
Chief political commentator