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This is how the election results will go — and why liberals should welcome a long, drawn-out night

Trump will claim victory as soon as early numbers show he’s on top. But the ‘Blue Shift’ of mail-in ballots will be on his way — and that’s what he most fears

Nathan Place
New York
Wednesday 04 November 2020 04:39 GMT
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Election 2020 Kentucky Voting
Election 2020 Kentucky Voting
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Well, here we go. To me and many other Americans, this moment feels a bit like reaching the crest of a rollercoaster and not knowing whether the track ahead is intact. In this context, it might seem odd to wish for the track to be longer. But I do.

Everyone who opposes President Trump wants a swift, merciful end to this election. But they should want just the opposite. If every vote is counted, Joe Biden is very likely to win. But that will take time, and Trump and his lawyers are laying the groundwork to stop the clock as early as possible.

So what do we do? Two things. Firstly, know that a prolonged vote count, in which the winner changes over time, is normal. Secondly, when someone tries to stop that count before it’s finished, protest with everything you’ve got.

In other words, don’t fear the “Blue Shift.” Election experts are expecting the vote count in crucial battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania, to come in slowly. And over the course of those few days or even weeks of counting, the tally could shift radically from Trump’s advantage to Biden’s.

That’s because states across the country are facing a tidal wave of mail-in ballots, which will take time to count. Unfortunately, the exact states that the election might hinge on — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — are states that can’t even start counting mail-in ballots until Election Day. And because President Trump has largely convinced his supporters not to vote by mail, most of those ballots are likely to be for Biden. So if exit polls show Trump ahead on Tuesday, votes could still trickle in until Biden is winning by Friday.

The important thing is to recognize that there’s nothing illegitimate about this shift. There’s no conspiracy here. It just takes time to count votes.

Of course, that’s probably not what Trump will say. His game plan is to declare victory when he’s ahead, then cry fraud when he’s losing. This almost definitely wouldn't stop any real cheating. But it could freeze the election at a point when Trump is winning.

So if, for example, the Pennsylvania vote count on Tuesday shows Trump ahead, don’t panic. And when Trump says the count must not continue on Wednesday because evil Democrats are falsifying the results, know that this is a desperate lie.

The second thing Trump will probably do is go to court. I wish I could say a case brought in such obvious bad faith has no chance of winning. But let’s be realistic: The Supreme Court now has a 6-3 conservative majority. Justice Kavanaugh has been writing creepily authoritarian opinions echoing Trump’s demand for a November 3 cut-off, complaining that a full vote count might “flip the results”— although, as Justice Kagan rightly pointed out, “there are no results to ‘flip’ until all valid votes are counted.”

In any case, if things get to the point where the president of the United States is asking the justices he appointed to do him a favor and stop an election before he can lose, Americans should fill the streets and protest. Not just because it will put pressure on the court, not just because it will embolden the Biden campaign to keep fighting, but because that would be an obscene, nakedly corrupt state of affairs that deserves to be protested against.

The principle that should be upheld here is simple: One person, one vote. A ballot cast in a mailbox is not worth less than a ballot cast in a voting booth. A ballot mailed on time, but delivered late by a hobbled postal service, is not worth less than a ballot in a dropbox. If you’re an American citizen, your vote should count.

So if the Trump campaign brings forth some frivolous case and the Supreme Court dithers over state and federal election law, the proper response is rage. And the words chanted by every protester and written on every sign should be the same: Count every vote.

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