Erdogan's return to office looks like the beginning of the end for democracy in Turkey

Nearly 300 Turkish diplomats have claimed asylum in Germany since last year's uprising, and campaigners suggest 80 per cent of Turkey's free media has been destroyed

And so, in the end, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was returned to power. The president had brought forward elections in Turkey by more than a year to finish what he described as the “diseases of the old system”, which were confronting his efforts to effect the change required to make the nation stronger for the future.

Opponents claimed that Erdogan had acted because he knew the weakness of Turkey’s lira might put his popularity in doubt – better to go to the polls while the economic impacts have not been felt than to hang on until November 2019.

Erdogan’s proposals for a new constitution, which would grant increased powers to the presidency, were approved in a referendum last year – but only by a narrow margin. The full effect of the amended constitution would come into force after the next elections, emphasising the importance to the incumbent of ensuring that they were held when he had the best chance of winning.

Having effectively led Turkey since his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won elections in 2002, Erdogan tightened his grip substantially – to the approval of many Turks – after the failed coup of July 2016. Indeed, his pitch to turn Turkey into an executive presidency was predicated on the need to ensure that the country’s elected government had the necessary powers to deal with those who would seek to cause domestic destabilisation.

In the run-up to this weekend’s election, much has been made of the fact that Erdogan faced supposedly serious opposition. The predominant western media narrative has, in recent years, increasingly presented the Turkish president as an authoritarian figure, who has gradually crushed dissent and bent the nation to his will. From an international perspective – and indeed to bolster the integrity of his presidency at home – there was an imperative for Erdogan to challenge the prevailing commentary.

Sure enough, it would be wrong to conclude on the weekend’s evidence that democracy in Turkey had been wholly killed off. There were six candidates on the presidential slate and although one of those (Selahattin Demirtas) is currently being held in prison on terror charges, Erdogan’s opponents campaigned vigorously. And while Erdogan has claimed an outright victory, he secured only 52.5 per cent of the vote.

In the parliamentary elections held at the same time, the AKP won 42 per cent, giving it just under half of the available seats. With its governing partner, the MHP, it will have a majority – but it hardly seems like a picture of absolutist rule, while the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party took over 10 per cent of the vote and will therefore enter parliament.

Nevertheless, to conclude that Erdogan’s victory is a great triumph for Turkish democracy would be to ignore the extent to which he has already consolidated the power of the state to suit his purposes and to bolster his own position. Even before the coup two years ago he had increasingly used compliant elements within the judiciary to stifle the influence of old elites, including both the military and the media.

The attempt in July 2016 by elements within the military to overthrow the president provided an excuse for a further crackdown. Under a state of emergency which has been in place ever since, Erdogan has dismissed more than 100,000 public servants and soldiers from their jobs, while 50,000 individuals are in prison, pending trial. What’s more, it emerged over the weekend that nearly 300 Turkish diplomats have sought political asylum in Germany since the uprising.

Journalistic freedoms, which were already considerably constrained, have now been heavily curtailed. Ninety per cent of the Turkish media is estimated to support the president, while some campaigners have suggested that 80 per cent of the country’s free, critical media has been destroyed. Not to forget that Turkey is ranked 157th out of 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders’ Press Freedom Index and is the world’s largest jailer of journalists.

The consequent lack of plurality plainly disadvantaged opposition candidates in the election, forcing them to be largely reliant on grassroots movements and social media to get their messages across to the electorate.

All in all, to conclude that everything is well in Turkey’s democratic process would be absurd. What’s more, under the terms of the new constitution, the centralisation of Erdogan’s power will become complete. The office of the prime minister will be scrapped, top public officials will be appointed directly by the president and intervention in the judicial process will officially be permissible.

This weekend’s elections still wore a cloak of democratic decency but they may be the last to do so in Turkey for a while.