Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

The bookies say the future is clear – Corbyn and Swinson won't be party leaders much longer

Keir Starmer is the current favourite to replace Jeremy Corbyn, with punters believing the party has some serious thinking to do

James Moore
Thursday 12 December 2019 23:47 GMT
Comments
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell accepts result would be a 'catastrophe' if the exit polls are right

“It’s all over. A shellacking.”

That was the reaction of Joe Lee, Paddy Power’s head of political trading as the exit poll predicting a Conservative landslide, the biggest majority since the Thatcher era was released at 10pm.

Sitting at the bookie’s London HQ it almost felt as if Anthony Joshua had been in and delivered a haymaker.

With the poll predicting a majority of 86, the odds on Boris Johnson winning a majority, which had got as long as 1/2 during the day, collapsed in to 1/100, killing the market off at a stroke.

There had been high hopes of an exciting evening and action for punters. The bookie had assembled a three-strong PR team in anticipation.

Trading during the day had been volatile, with people putting varying spins on the turn out in the wake of the queues seen at some poling stations. A number of punters thought it meant Labour had got its vote out. Oops.

The Sporting Index spread also moved against the Tories during the day, predicting a much smaller majority than it had been forecasting earlier in the week. That changed too.

There was even some excitement in Paddy Power’s market on Johnson’s seat.

“A case of heart ruling the head,” said Lee. “Those thinking Labour got their voters out were proved wrong.”

Badly wrong. As the exit poll dropped, the trader’s focus switched to calculating the price on Jeremy Corbyn stepping down on Sunday.

The odds? 1/50. So another done deal. The bookie was discussing paying out early on that one. The implied probability at that price: 98 per cent. Corbyn out was trending on Twitter. And no one was singing “oh Jeremy Corbyn”.

At the time of writing he was 3/1 to have gone by 9am. In a battle of least worst options, he appears to have lost decisively. And maybe the country has lost with him.

How about Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson, who helped Johnson achieve his ambition by backing the bill paving the way for an election?

It would be very hard to see her sticking around after the way that one seems to have gone. She’s 1/7 to be gone by the end of the year. That’s always assuming she remains in parliament. It’s odds against that happening. The price of her losing her seat at the time of writing? 1/3. Just deserts, some may feel.

That made the most exciting market in the wake of the poll’s release the one on who may be the next Labour leader.

The runners and riders will have likely been on the phone to their campaign teams if they had any sense.

Keir Starmer has been installed as the 9/4 favourite as the next Labour leader. Grey, but a safe pair of hands I suppose for a party that clearly has some serious thinking to do.

He was followed by Rebecca Long Bailey, at 7/2, then Yvette Cooper (9/1). Angela Rayner, Laura Pidcock and Emily Thornberry (were all being offered at 10/1). Jess Philips could be interesting outsider coming up on the rails at 16/1. She might have what it takes to fire up a party that needs to find something from somewhere.

It’s about time the party had a woman leader. They could hardly do any worse than the man who has the job for now.

“That get Brexit done was a solid message. It’s like a PR campaign and it’s worked,” said Lee. ​

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in