George Osborne will need a new charm offensive to keep Brexit Tories onside

But the Chancellor has a problem: the decision of his main rival in the Tory leadership stakes to campaign for Brexit has transformed the contest

George Osborne at the British Chambers of Commerce conference (AFP/Getty)

George Osborne is determined to play the Good Cop to David Cameron’s Bad Cop during the Conservative Party’s fractious debate about EU membership.

The Chancellor has told Tory MPs he is invoking Ronald Reagan’s “11th commandment”— his pledge to avoid personal attacks on fellow US Republicans. “I won’t speak ill of a Conservative,” he said. Mr Osborne will turn down a request from broadcasters for a shoot-out at Wembley Arena against Boris Johnson. He will play the economic ball, not the man. In marked contrast to Mr Cameron, who could not disguise his anger when Mr Johnson came out as an Outer. Unwisely, he accused the Mayor of London of having another “agenda” – in effect, putting his Tory leadership ambitions above the national interest. Of course, Mr Osborne is not without ambition. So it is in his interests to play the role of the unifier who brings the Tories back together again after the referendum and takes the fight to Labour. “The Conservative Party is a family of people who have for many years known that we’ve disagreed on this one issue,” he told the BBC. “There are so many things we do agree on.”

But the Chancellor has a problem: the decision of his main rival in the Tory leadership stakes to campaign for Brexit has transformed the contest. As Mr Cameron has announced he will not lead the party into the next general election, our next prime minister will be chosen by just 150,000 people – Tory members.

Ominously for Mr Osborne, the first survey of them showed that Mr Johnson is the choice of 43 per cent (up from 38 per cent before he became an Outer), with the Chancellor on 22 per cent and Theresa May on 19 per cent. The YouGov poll for The Times showed that the London Mayor (56 per cent) would beat Mr Osborne (38 per cent) in a run-off between the two men.

Crucially, the shortlist of two from which Tory members choose the leader is decided by the party’s MPs. Since returning to the Commons last May, Mr Johnson has not built much of a following among Tory MPs, fuelling Team Osborne’s hopes that he might not win a place on the shortlist. But by declaring for Out, Mr Johnson has surely guaranteed himself enough support to make the run-off. So far, 162 Tory MPs have said they will vote to remain and 126 to leave, with 42 yet to declare. Suddenly, Mr Johnson does not look so lonely.

If the poll is right, Mr Osborne has gone from hero to zero in a few months. Last summer he was widely seen as the front-runner to succeed Mr Cameron, after helping him win an unexpected general election victory and presenting a successful Budget. But his U-turn over tax credits, and mishandling of the Google tax controversy, has damaged him in the eyes of some Tory MPs. Now the EU referendum is harming his prospects. Some Eurosceptics blame him for converting Mr Cameron to the In cause regardless of the new deal he won from the EU. The Chancellor insists he is merely doing his day job. “The best thing I can do is to give that serious, sober and principled analysis of the profound damage it [Brexit] would do to our economic interests,” he said.

Mr Osborne is getting used to the rollercoaster ride. He was shaken by being booed at the 2012 Paralympics. But instead of accepting what many Tories believed – that his unpopularity among voters would make it impossible for him to succeed Mr Cameron – he relaunched himself with a diet, a new haircut and vowed to “get out more” from his Treasury bubble, usually in a hi vis jacket. He bounced back, and friends insist he can do so again. Mr Johnson, who will appear on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, is enjoying the limelight. But Mr Osborne will take centre stage when he presents his Budget on 16 March.

A vote to leave the EU in June would kill Mr Osborne’s hopes of becoming Tory leader. But if Mr Cameron prevails, he would be very much in the game. True, YouGov found that 59 per cent of Tory members want Britain to leave the EU, and only 31 per cent to remain. Many Tories are convinced that their next leader will be an Outer, whatever the referendum result.

Yet if Britain votes to stay in the EU, Mr Cameron would have two reasons to remain in Downing Street for as long as possible. Firstly, to ensure the One Nation legacy he wants. Secondly, to allow time to heal Tory wounds on Europe and ease the path of his chosen successor Mr Osborne.