Three Republican excuses for an Obama victory exposed

Barack Obama addresses a rally in Madison, Wisconsin, yesterday (right) and Mitt Romney greets supporters in Sanford, Florida, yesterday (Reuters)

Nervy Democrats may want to touch wood before they jump into this piece. Samuel Popkin, a political scientist at UC San Diego, has written a "pre-mortem" of the election, working on the assumption that all goes to plan and Obama wins without the need for lengthy recounts and legal battles.

Popkin pre-empts three myths.

1) Sandy defeated Mitt Romney

If Republicans head for this explanation, it's likely got more to do with their trying to explain away "the fact that all that paid media brought by the Republican Super-PACs was of limited value at the end of a presidential race".

2) The first debate was a Game Changer for Romney

The "permanent" bump to Romney's polling some commentators pointed to was not enough to divert the course of the election his way. "At no point before or after the first debate did Mitt Romney ever lead in enough state polls to cobble together 270 electoral votes".

3) The Republicans lost because Romney was a lousy candidate

Romney's governorship of Massachusetts proved him not untalented. His personality flaws were no worse than Nixon's. He lost this election because of "early mistakes".