Why should we trust opinion polls?

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Saturday 07 May 2016 10:42 BST
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Scotland's First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon addresses the media outside Bute House, the official residence of the Scottish First Minister, in Edinburgh. Scottish nationalists won a third term in power but lost their outright majority in one of a series of local and regional elections seen as a key test for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn
Scotland's First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon addresses the media outside Bute House, the official residence of the Scottish First Minister, in Edinburgh. Scottish nationalists won a third term in power but lost their outright majority in one of a series of local and regional elections seen as a key test for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn

Opinion pollsters were wildly wrong at last year's general election and they've not performed much better for this week's Holyrood elections.

True, every poll predicted an SNP win but a 10-year-old could have told you that.

However, few suggested the SNP would be unable to form a majority government, nor that the nationalists' percentage share of regional votes would fall. Indeed rather than suggest the SNP would lose six seats, most polls predicted an inexorable nationalist rise, gifting Nicola Sturgeon the inalienable right to do as she wishes.

Nicola, you've democratically won three elections in a row and the majority of us, with regret, accept that. How about you - I'm sure with equal regret - now accept we, the majority, democratically won the referendum - and drop all this verbiage about using opinion polls to trigger demands for another?

Martin Redfern

Edinburgh

Satire wins

Thank God for Mark Steel! (‘Racial sensitivity has never been a strong point for the Conservatives’, 6 May).

Penny Little

Oxfordshire

Corbyn has little chance of winning in 2020 based on these election results

Michael Foot gained 988 seats in the 1981 local elections then was heavily defeated in the '83 General Election.

Kinnock gained 564 seats in the 1991 local elections then lost in the '92 parliamentary poll.

Corbyn (at the time of writing) has delivered a net loss of 24 seats and has been pushed into 3rd place in Scotland behind the Conservatives, despite another budget omnishambles and senior Tories at each other’s throats over Europe. Only the most deluded fantasist could believe Jeremy Corbyn has any chance of walking into 10 Downing Street in 2020.

Mark Edmondson

Lancaster

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