Immigration controls will make or break this Labour government

If you’re uneasy with home secretary Shabana Mahmood’s plan to deport immigrants unless they prove they are contributing to society, consider the alternative – ‘prime minister Nigel Farage’, says Sean O’Grady

If the Labour Party – the Labour government, indeed – appears to be running scared from Nigel Farage and Reform UK, it’s because it jolly well should be.

The Reform surge in the opinion polls may be no more than a cry of frustration, a protest vote aimed at the two older parties, a product of cynical manipulation by malign agents in social media and the mainstream media. It may be that the electorate will come to their senses and realise what kind of chaotic, racist, failed state Farage would turn the place into.

Shabana Mahmood, the new home secretary, knows better than most what’s at stake: “Patriotism, a force for good, is turning into something smaller, something more like ethno-nationalism.”

A majority Reform government led by Farage as prime minister – let those words marinate in your mind for a moment – would be no normal governmental disaster. Farage would be worse than Liz Truss. Worse than Heath. Far worse, in fact, than Keir Starmer, if you like.

So he has to be stopped. There is, to borrow an old phrase, no alternative – and that, absent the Tories and with the Liberal Democrats in a weak a position, means this Labour government taking the fight to Farage on his favourite terrain: immigration.

It is the prospect of a Farage administration that has driven Mahmood to come up with a raft of tough new measures, set to be unveiled at the Labour Party conference, that will require migrants who wish to remain in the UK to learn English to a high standard; to have a clean criminal record; and to volunteer in their community. Under Mahmood’s proposed changes, they will also have to be working, paying national insurance, and not be claiming benefits.

Imagine, say, if the government did manage to stop the boats. If it did empty the asylum hotels by Christmas. If it did process the vast backlog of asylum claims left behind by the Tories. If it did quickly answer the Reform challenge on the abuse, real or imagined, of “indefinite leave to remain” status. Would Reform just go away and retire? Would the flag people calm down? Would Labour suddenly become super popular again? Obviously not, but there would at least be evidence that Labour ministers were prepared to address some people’s anguished concerns.

There is every sense that the new home secretary understands the scale and urgency of the task ahead of her (PA)

Those who are just getting on with their lives, who think “Nigel is speaking up for people like me”, would feel that they were being taken seriously. They’re not racists, don’t consider themselves part of the “far right”, and resent being condescended to; they would appreciate being listened to. If they think the boats are being stopped, they can see the local hotels returning to normal, and they have confidence that the asylum, visa and immigration systems are working properly and fairly, then they will have no need for Farage. He will be pushed back to his base.

This is where Mahmood comes in. There is every sense that the new home secretary understands the scale and urgency of the task ahead of her, and the horrendous consequences for the country if Labour should fail to control immigration.

If people think their politicians aren’t listening to them on this issue, and that they haven’t been for some years – or, worse, feel that they’ve been deliberately deceived – then sooner or later they will let their frustrations out at the ballot box, and elect people far, far worse than Starmer and Mahmood could ever be for the UK. That’s how democracy works. Starmer is right to say Reform extremists would tear it apart. Ed Davey is right to warn that it would be as cold and ugly as Donald Trump’s America.

If Mahmood says she’ll do whatever it takes to fix the mess, and prevent that calamity, that’s a great start. If she manages to succeed, she will have done more than anyone else to save this government.

For those who think her policy is just as “racist” as Farage’s – that there’s no point in backing Starmer, so they’ll vote Lib Dem, Green or Corbyn in Labour seats – they should try to imagine Prime Minister Farage on the steps of No 10, with a thumping majority, and just itching to deport their neighbour. Farage, that smiling charlatan, wants to steal our tolerant, peaceful, truly patriotic country from us, and we cannot let him destroy it.