Terrorism is evolving: Isolation is a route to radicalisation we cannot ignore

A year of Covid restrictions could lead to an increase in vulnerable children adopting extremist ideologies ‒ a proportion of whom may go on to commit terrorist offences such as school shootings

“Mixed, unstable and unclear” ideologies accounted for 51 per cent of all referrals to the UK’s counterterrorism programme, Prevent, in 2019-20. This represents a significant rise for the third consecutive year. Despite this fact, our understanding of less “conventional” extremist ideologies, and combinations thereof, remains in its infancy.

So what is meant by “mixed, unstable and unclear” exactly? “Mixed” refers to individuals who exhibit a combination of elements from multiple ideologies; “unstable” describes those who shift between different beliefs; and finally, “unclear” refers to an individual who does not present any fixed or coherent set of ideas or philosophies. What they all have in common, though, is a fascination with various types of extremist or violent content.

The perpetrators of school shootings are consistently cited as poster boys by mass-murderers and terrorists today, who refer to events such as the Dunblane massacre in 1996, Columbine in 1999, or Sandy Hook in 2012. While many such attacks have taken place in the US, the UK is certainly not immune to the threat of school shootings. There have been at least two cases in the last three years in the UK where individuals convicted of terrorism offences have subscribed to this particular ideology.

Thomas Wyllie and Alex Bolland, both 14 and from the North Yorkshire market town of Northallerton, were sentenced to a combined 22 years’ imprisonment in July 2018 for conspiracy to murder teachers and pupils at the school they attended. Their plot was described as a planned “re-enactment” of the 1999 Columbine High School massacre. In a diary found by police, Wyllie made his intentions clear, stating: “F***, I hate my school. I will obliterate it. I will kill everyone,” and: “If this is found I have committed one of the worst atrocities in British history or I killed myself.”

Kyle Davies, 19, of Gloucester, was sentenced to 16 years’ imprisonment in July 2019 for purchasing a handgun and ammunition on the “dark web”. He was described as having the intention to endanger life in a “shooting event”. Police stated that the depth of research conducted by Davies left them in no doubt that he was intending to “follow in the footsteps of the murderers he idolised", including the Columbine killers Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold and Norwegian far-right terrorist Anders Breivik.

Taken together, these two cases are clear examples of the way school shooters often have “mixed, unstable and unclear” ideologies: in these cases, all three perpetrators had previously voiced far-right opinions ‒ suggesting typical ideological overlap.

From first-hand experience working as a Prevent officer, I know that the fascination with and hero-worshipping of school shooters is becoming increasingly common among children and young people at risk of radicalisation. These (mostly) young men are often characterised as vulnerable, including being victims of bullying, suffering from depression, engaging in self-harm, and experiencing suicidal intent.

A year of Covid-19-induced social isolation has done little for the emotional and psychological wellbeing of children and young people, especially those with existing vulnerabilities. This period may in time prove to have been a significant enabler of radicalisation, leading to an increase in ideologically motivated individuals ‒ a proportion of whom may go on to commit terrorist offences.

The way that individuals exhibiting “mixed” ideologies take inspiration from a number of different types of extremism ‒ and from the violent tactics used by the respective groups or their supporters ‒ makes these people’s behaviour, as well as the threat they pose, far more complex and unpredictable than the behaviour and risk posed by those with any single fixed ideology.

Given their presence, we must not underestimate the radicalisation risk, nor the threat of violence posed by “mixed” ideologies. Furthermore, the authorities must ensure they call “mixed” ideologically motivated terrorism by its real name, as is the case for far-right and Islamist-inspired terrorism. The terror threat is evolving, and so too must our response to it.

Matt Dryden is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society’s Centre on Radicalisation and Terrorism, and a former Prevent officer and police investigator