The next 12 months will decide the fate of the UK for generations

Scotland’s elections and the EU referendum will decide whether the United Kingdom itself survives

The European referendum is likely to be held in the summer

The decisions to be made in 2016 will shape the future of the United Kingdom for generations to come. The elections to Scotland’s Parliament at Holyrood in the spring will tell us whether the SNP will retain its dominant position there. The European referendum – likely to be held next summer, after the Prime Minister’s efforts to renegotiate the UK’s relationship to the European Union have concluded – will determine whether we remain within the Union or leave it. The two results taken together could also, as the former Foreign Secretary, William Hague, pointed out last week, decide whether the United Kingdom itself survives.

Yet, so far, this great debate has not engaged much of the British public. The European issue is not near the top of our concerns. The discussion has been dominated by bankers and businessmen, whose interests are primarily economic and financial, and rarely address the global challenges, such as climate change and Russia’s new assertiveness, that Europe now faces.

Four decades ago, at the time of the first referendum in Britain on membership of the European Economic Community, the debate reflected the Cold War: it concerned the division of the European continent between the satellites of the Soviet Union and the Western European countries allied to the United States, and the threat to democracy that such a division posed. The main meetings during that 1975 campaign were on all-party platforms and were attended by hundreds of people.

The division of the continent remains, but it has been transformed since 1989. It reflects now the triumph of the European Union: every dictatorship or military-controlled government in Europe, from Spain to Greece, has disappeared, followed after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 by the former members of the Soviet bloc.

This victory of democracy owes a great deal to Britain. It was a British Foreign Secretary, Ernest Bevin, who framed the European response to America’s Marshall Plan, in a joint effort that led to a rapid economic recovery. It was British lawyers who constructed a European court based on respect for human rights, in which governments themselves could be challenged by individual citizens. And at the heart of the European community was the right of its citizens to travel freely, to live and work where they wished – and to do so without discrimination.

Leading a country that has not been invaded or occupied for nearly 1,000 years, the Prime Minister fails to understand how precious such principles are for most Europeans.

There is, of course, a serious problem stemming from the remoteness of Europe’s institutions from most ordinary Europeans. Voting for members of the European Parliament is consistently below voting for national parliaments. Lobbyists (especially those representing business) know their way around the EU system, but few NGOs or even backbench MPs share their understanding. The Prime Minister’s emphasis on a larger role for national Parliaments is welcome in the renegotiations.

That is, however, only one step in the democratic development of the European Union. Another relates to the appointment of European Commissioners. Nominees proposed by national governments should be subject to the advice and consent of national Parliaments. Commissioners should also be expected to attend their national Parliament on a regular basis to respond to questions about European legislation and administration.

Constitutional issues apart, Europe badly needs continent-wide communication. This is another area where Britain could play a major role, as the BBC is the most respected and fair-minded national broadcaster in the world, with a long established record for integrity and responsibility. It has a strong foundation in this country, as audience participation demonstrates. The main public broadcasters in the European Union should be able to construct between them a European channel reporting not only on the European Parliament, but also on significant debates and developments in other national Parliaments.

Through measures such as these, the UK could regain its influence in the world by contributing to the political development of Europe – as it once did. It could also strengthen the UK, drawing on the experience of Scotland’s devolution and of Ireland’s peaceful and constructive new relationship with the United Kingdom.

Or, it could abdicate from the world’s problems. 2016 will indeed be a fateful year.