Tory Eurosceptics are playing games with Theresa May's Brexit deal – she must realise before it’s too late

I am not alone in being sceptical about the Eurosceptics

They celebrated by quaffing champagne at Jacob Rees-Mogg’s £5m Westminster home after inflicting the record 230 vote Commons defeat on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. But the morning after, the celebrations of the hardline Brexiteers fell flat. They realised they might unintentionally kill their longstanding dream, as rival MPs mobilised for a soft Brexit, a Final Say referendum or to block a no deal exit on 29 March.

So, led by Rees-Mogg, the hardliners transmogrified themselves into softies who might back May’s agreement after all. Strangely, the European Research Group‘s (ERG) move came without any concessions by May, who in a rather surreal Commons statement on Monday vowed to plough on with her deal as if her humiliating defeat had not happened.

The big question now is whether the Eurosceptics’ softening position is for real. I can’t help thinking they are stringing May along, giving her hope that her deal may yet win Commons approval so she does not bow to the growing pressure to rule out a no-deal Brexit. These voices are getting louder as the impact of a cliff edge departure becomes clearer by the day – from cabinet ministers, MPs in all parties and bosses like Tom Enders, the Airbus chief executive, who called for an end to the “madness” of Brexiteers playing down the threat of hundreds of thousands of jobs.

I am not alone in being sceptical about the Eurosceptics. “They are wasting time, running down the clock so they get a no deal exit”, one minister told me.

Eurosceptics have tabled an amendment for next Tuesday’s Commons debate that suggests they would back the deal if the EU “replaced” the backstop to prevent a hard Irish border with “alternative arrangements” such as new technology. This has previously been dismissed as “magical thinking” by the EU. Other Tory amendments make approval of May’s deal conditional on the backstop ending in December 2021, limiting it to one year. Again, the EU has consistently said it will never time limit an insurance policy. May hopes for a Commons majority on these amendments, so she can return to Brussels and tell EU leaders that parliament’s demands offer a path to avoid the no-deal scenario the EU is increasingly worried about.

There are also signs the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) might end its opposition if the backstop were time limited. This would not be a great surprise, since the party has a history of doing U-turns and then claiming victory. But it could prove significant. A DUP change of heart would provide cover for some of the 118 Tories who voted against the deal to follow suit. Some Tories were always going to climb back on board after rebelling once – in some cases, to keep their Eurosceptic local party activists happy.

Encouraged by the new mood at Westminster, May allies talk up the prospect of the Commons backing a revised deal. Unfortunately, these are the same super-optimists who told me her defeat on the deal would be in double figures.

Indeed, May is a long way from securing the required numbers. Rees-Mogg now suggests the backstop is the only barrier. Yet of the agreement’s 118 Tory opponents, only 34 said the backstop was their only concern. Some 47 wanted a Canada-style limited free trade agreement, while 18 would be happy to leave the EU without a deal.

Tory whips believe at least 20 Eurosceptics are likely to oppose May’s deal even after changes to the backstop. Then there are the 20 pro-EU Tories, some of whom want a referendum. If 40 Tories opposed a tweaked May deal, to win she would need the support of about 35 Labour MPs (even if the DUP backed her). That is a tall order.

While Rees-Mogg spoke about “outbreaks of realism all round”, his anxiety about moves to block a no deal exit was revealed by his bizarre suggestion that the Queen suspend parliament to thwart his opponents.

He is right to be worried. On Tuesday, backbenchers could and should vote for an extension to the Article 50 process to take no deal off the table. Despite warning that a no-deal Brexit would be a “betrayal” of Brexiteers’ promises, the chancellor Philip Hammond on Friday urged MPs to hold fire, saying Tuesday was not a “high noon” moment. But, like Amber Rudd, who wants ministers to have a free vote on the backbench plans to block no deal, Hammond refused to rule out resigning over the issue.

May should show leadership by ending the “madness” before the continuing prospect of a no-deal scenario inflicts more economic damage. It seems she would prefer to have an Article 50 extension imposed on her by the Commons, so she can tell the ERG her hands are clean. She should realise before it’s too late that the Eurosceptics are playing games, in the hope of securing the no deal exit she does not want.