Is Trump being schooled in the art of the deal, Russian-style?

By turning his nose up at the US-proposed ceasefire, Vladimir Putin has deployed a typically skilful diplomatic negotiating ploy – agreeing with the US president ‘in principle’ while disagreeing in practice, says Sean O’Grady

No one has ever accused Donald Trump of lacking self-belief. Perhaps that had helped him in life, and to overcome deficits in his personality that might have prevented him from becoming a billionaire and president of the United States. Which he did.

He famously wrote a book about this – ghost-written, actually – with the title, The Art of the Deal (the ghost-writer also came up with that). And we never stop hearing about it.

Vladimir Putin has probably never read Trump’s much-cited 1987 business memoir, nor his other works, including Kick Ass and Think Big, How to Get Rich, or the more modestly titled Midas Touch. But the ex-KGB man and modern-day czar has also done quite well for himself. Could he be about to give Trump a masterclass in how to do deals the Russian way?

At the moment, Putin is clearly playing for time, not least to allow his forces to make further gains on the ground before the ceasefire line is frozen, as seems inevitable. One of Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff, was left cooling his heels in Moscow while Putin took a first look at the putative deal, which has to be “carefully, painstakingly studied by both sides”, in Putin’s terms. Now Witkoff is taking Putin’s non-committal answer and steep demands for Ukrainian emasculation back to Washington. Another American peace envoy, the hapless Keith Kellogg, has been kept well away from the Kremlin, the kind of thing Trump would usually lose his rag about.

Putin has deployed a typically skilful diplomatic negotiating ploy – agreeing with Trump “in principle”, while disagreeing in practice.

The idea [of a ceasefire] is good, and we absolutely support it, but there are issues we need to discuss and negotiate with our American colleagues, maybe a phone call with President Trump,” declared Putin, disingenuous as ever.

The Russian president also says the ceasefire already agreed between America and Ukraine “should lead to an enduring peace and should remove the root causes of this crisis”. Cheeky. These supposed “root causes” go back to the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990, which Putin regards as a tragedy of historic proportions, and the very notion of Ukraine as a legitimate independent state. If the root cause is the dissolution of the last Russian empire, the freedoms won by Poland, East Germany, Romania, the Baltic States, Ukraine, Georgia and all the rest, then addressing that, and getting them all out of Nato, will take a little longer than Trump has in mind.

Further, in immediate terms, Putin demands that Ukraine partially demilitarises itself during the one-month ceasefire: “We want guarantees that during the 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine will not conduct mobilisation, training or receive weapons.” All Donald wanted from Vladimir was a simple “Da!”.

Yet, judging from his predictably hard-line statements, Putin plainly has zero intention of agreeing to a rapid ceasefire. The deal Trump got under duress from Volodymyr Zelesnky was supposed to be so good that Putin would tear his arm off. But Trump handed all the best cards, which America possessed, to the Kremlin.

Putin knows that Trump is desperate for a deal, and it will take almost anything to fulfil his (overdue) promise the he could settle the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, even before formally he took office. Putin knows Trump won’t offer Ukraine a security guarantee, and that he wants to stop sending expensive American armaments. For that matter, he has also heard Trump say he doesn’t think Putin will invade Ukraine again, or any other country.

Trump has made no secret that he wants to convene a summit of the new Big Three in world affairs – a Trump-Putin-Xi pow-wow where they can carve the world up into spheres of influence. Nothing to do with Ukraine is going to be allowed to get in the way of that. He’s called Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator and said Ukraine started the war, giving up on the Kremlin’s “talking points”.

Putin and Russia are in an immensely weak position compared to America, but Trump seems to have forgotten how powerful he is. So Putin knows the strength of his (unwarranted) bargaining position, and that he can play Trump along, and make him wait. It’s a humiliating rebuke.

So, no deal? That depends.

It could be that Trump could, more or less, accept Putin’s terms, dismember Ukraine and leave it to Putin’s mercy – but the fighting would stop, “peace”, of sorts, would return. It would be a miserable deal for Ukraine, the United States and the world. But Trump could declare victory and move on, safe in the knowledge that the MAGA base aren’t bothered about the fate of Europe. Trump should be humbled by such a denouement – but he will present himself as the natural winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize.

Or… Putin could overplay his hand, force Zelensky to reject the deal and leave Trump in such a difficult position that he might even decide to back Ukraine, arming them to force Putin to agree to reasonable terms. Admittedly, that is the less likely outcome, but Trump, as we all know, is erratic and prone to tantrums. He’s made some threatening noises about what might happen if Putin rejects his deal – and he would not wish to be seen to be defeated, even by such a respected adversary.

We shall soon see whether Trump has indeed got the Midas touch, and can pull off the deal of the 21st century… or if he is about to have his ass kicked by the more coldly calculating President Putin. There’s rather more than Trump’s ego at stake this time.