Trump needs Japan on his side if he wants to achieve a ‘trade truce’ with China

What’s curious about this weekend’s meeting between Trump and Abe ahead of the G20 is that Trump is not seeking to find common ground in an effort to contain China’s ambitions – or at least if he is, it is not evident to the Trump-watchers in Washington

Hamish McRae
Washington DC
Sunday 26 May 2019 14:50 BST
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Trump blissfully unaware as Japan PM Shinzo Abe falls into golf sandpit

Donald Trump is in Tokyo meeting Prime Minister Abe, and the principal subject unsurprisingly will be trade tensions between the US and Japan. The Brookings Institution here in DC has done a good summary of the issues, making the key point that using national security as a front for cutting imports is a spurious argument. It is certainly hard to see why Americans buying Toyota cars (many of which are assembled in the US) should undermine US security.

Leave aside the details and focus on this key point: Japan is in economic decline. True, it is the third largest economy in the world, after the US and China, but in relative weight it is becoming less important – in contrast to China. So it is in the self-interest of the US to support Japan as a regional counterweight to China. Attacking its key industry, car manufacturing, must therefore be counter to US strategic interests.

This leads to a wider question. What do we know about the impact of the current trade tensions?

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