Five things you need to know about the world economy in 2023

Growth will feel different and the old measures of wealth, notably GDP per head, will have to be re-thought, writes Hamish McRae

The big picture is that we are having one of those global downturns that come along very roughly every 10 years (Getty)

So what should we expect from 2023 – and beyond? The end of the year always sets economists and market analysts off on projections for the 12 months ahead… and they are usually wrong.

Last year saw a particularly hopeless set of forecasts, with the official forecasts of inflation far too optimistic, and hardly anyone predicting the collapse of the prices of US high-tech shares. Even the better forecasts have not been much help to investors. Take the one from Morgan Stanley, which did predict a surge in inflation and interest rates, thought that the benchmark S&P500 index would be “rangebound and volatile”. Well, it has been volatile, but not rangebound, for it is currently down nearly 20 per cent on the year.

So rather than trying to predict what might happen in the coming year, let’s step back and think of the wider features of the world economy right now. Here are five propositions.