Why Trump’s second state visit to the UK may never happen...

Inviting Trump for an unprecedented second state visit was a clever diplomatic ploy by the PM, writes Jon Sopel. But actually hosting it would be fraught with risks – so is the plan to make it quietly go away?

Whatever accusations that detractors could level at Sir Keir Starmer, the words show pony, flashy or flamboyant wouldn’t be among them. He hates the performative in politics and isn’t much interested in the flummery that goes with high office.

However, there has been one notable occasion when he did go in for some carefully rehearsed and orchestrated theatricality. It was when he sat down with Donald Trump in the Oval Office; the world’s press was there to record the occasion. He reached into the inside pocket of his suit jacket and produced a letter with the red royal seal on the envelope – and handed it to a beaming Donald Trump.

It was as though Trump had been presented with Willy Wonka’s golden ticket. It was the invitation from the King to come to Britain for a state visit. Not just any old run-of-the-mill state visit, but an unprecedented second state visit. No elected politician has ever enjoyed such an honour.

When we interviewed Sir Keir for our podcast, The News Agents, I pressed him on why he’d made the invitation. At first, he tried to hide behind the ridiculous idea that the offer had come from the Palace – and not him. But there is no way in the world that Buckingham Palace would have done that without Downing Street’s approval. Starmer also said it was unprecedented for a president to come back like Trump had done. I did point out he was also unique in having been impeached twice and the first president to have a criminal conviction, and one who wanted to annex a commonwealth country, namely Canada.

For all that, it was probably smart politics. There is undoubtedly a fascination that Trump has with our monarchy in general and this royal family in particular. It is Britain’s soft power. And maybe, just maybe, assisted the UK in securing the first trade deal with the US in Trump’s tariff-driven world.

The Starmer/Trump love-in (the day before the Zelensky/Trump loathe-in) was back in February. Since when have we heard that the visit might happen in the autumn, but nothing has been confirmed. And what I am hearing is that there is a bit of wishful thinking from some that it might never actually happen.

Here’s how it was only semi-jokingly sketched out to me by someone very close to both the King and Queen. He said this to me: “Look, the president is expected to come over to Aberdeen later in July or August for the opening of his fabulous-looking new links course, so the King would be delighted if that coincided with his stay at Balmoral.”

It is, after all, a short Marine One helicopter hop away from the granite city. Then it was explained to me that they would put on a fine show – pipers and kilts galore, a fabulous dinner with the good and the great invited. But a state occasion it wouldn’t be. And given pressures on the presidential diary, would he want to come back to the UK a month or two later?

I understood all of this and could see how this gets you through 2025, particularly as there is already one state visit scheduled for this year: that of France’s Emmanuel Macron. However, what about 2026, I ventured to ask.

There was a pause. “Aah, well, 2026 is the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States of America and the Declaration of Independence, and the pressure then will be for the King to make a big visit to America.” Of course. Charles III will want to mark the defenestration of his ancestor, George III.

You can guess my next question: OK, what about 2027? A wry smile played on his lips. “Well, that’s a very long way away, isn’t it?”

Honestly, I felt as though I had washed up in a Yes Minister script. It was all so understated and – well – British. The more I thought about it, the more I could see the quiet brilliance of the thinking.

Donald Trump and the late Queen Elizabeth II (PA)

There has been a lot of criticism of the British government’s approach to Trump: that it’s been too obsequious, too timid; overly deferential. Why didn’t we have some of Mark Carney’s Canadian spunk, for goodness’ sake?

It is certainly true that a second Trump state visit would be fraught with risk. It is hard to believe there will be crowds 10 deep, lining the Mall, waving union jacks and stars and stripes. It has political risk for Sir Keir – why are you hosting someone who seems hellbent on bulldozing the institutions and relationships that have kept our country so close for so long? And you can be sure that someone as thin-skinned as Trump won’t want to see hostile crowds.

What a feat of diplomatic engineering it would be if the mandarin class could accidentally on purpose make the invitation letter disappear into a puff of ‘diaries wouldn’t align, such a shame’, etc, etc. You would have earned the brownie points for having so graciously made the invitation, but then with suave agility, you wriggle out of ever having to make good on it.

Earlier this week, I was with a former senior civil servant who is still very au courant with what is happening in government and I ran past him what I had been told. He went to the canon of House of Cards rather than Yes Minister.

“You might say that, Jon. I couldn’t possibly comment.” But then he winked and said he thought that was exactly the plan.

But a diplomatic snub to The Donald would be catastrophic. Unthinkable. So this might have to remain as the twinkling of an idea.