US sanctions against Iran are harsh, but nobody really knows what will happen if they sink Tehran’s regime

Even as the US raises tensions with Iran to an unprecedented level, there appears to be no readily available plan for what to do in case its scheme actually succeeds, says Borzou Daragahi

If only one out of 20 of the fervent regime supporters take up arms, that’s a potential pool of 600,000 men willing to fight and die for the system for years to come (AFP/Getty)

Somewhere deep within the bowels of CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, or perhaps in a vault in one the offices of the Defence Intelligence Agency at the Pentagon, there might lie a thick three-ring binder assessing what it would mean in case there is massive, cataclysmic regime change in Iran.

In it, possibly, are prognostications of how the collapse of the clerical regime would play out among Iran’s ethnic, ideological, or class groups; how it would impact capital markets and oil prices, refugee flows from the Middle East or the balance of power in Eurasia. Appendices of the study might include sage wisdom from top analysts about what the United States should do in each scenario.