Letter: Short-term outlook

Sir: The discussion of a new paradigm, or a new economy, is nothing new ("New paradigm theory gains ground", 1 June) but then neither is a "Goldilocks" recovery from a long-term structural recession or slump.

The problem is that economists take far too short-term a view of trends within the world economy. We often hear discussion about the business or trade cycle (now down to every four to five years - Marx was right there!) but no one seems to have noticed that this is merely a short-term cycle within the long-term cycle of around 50 years.

We should be looking for parallels in the behaviour of the economy around 1950, or 1900, to see what is sustainable and for how long. If we take this longer cyclical view we will see an environment where, in general, there was low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates and a pervasive sense of "good times are here to stay".

These economic "miracles" were not terminated in a sudden collapse but slowly, almost imperceptibly, they turned into the pervasive sense of "bad times are here to stay" we have come to associate with the 1930s and the 1980s.

Rather than studying the situation in minutiae, economists would be better taking a few long strides back, and viewing economic history from an old man's perspective.

ANDREW WHITEHEAD

High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire