'We won' says Olmert as Israel declares ceasefire

Half-concealing a smile of self-satisfaction as he declared a unilateral ceasefire, the Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert has assured Israelis that “we won.” Claiming that the Israeli army had obtained all its objectives, he said that Hamas was “surprised and badly beaten.”

Israel has certainly shown its military superiority in the 22 days since 90 Israeli planes opened hostilities on 27 December when they launched a surprise attack on 100 targets in the Gaza Strip. In the eyes of many Israelis the Gaza War has restored Israel's ability to deter its enemies, a deterrence that had been degraded by its failure to crush Hezbullah in Lebanon in 2006.

But the ability of Israel's heavy tanks, artillery and air force to win any clash with several thousand lightly armed Hamas fighters was never in doubt. Israel may in the long term achieve some success in getting weapons smuggling from Egypt into Gaza more tightly monitored. But Hamas remains in almost full control of the Gaza Strip and the Israeli government says it intends to withdraw from those bits of territory which it has reoccupied.

Whatever Mr Olmert's intention the short war has propelled Gaza and its people to the top of the international agenda in a way that was never true before. The eighteen month Israeli-Egyptian blockade of Gaza, which wholly impoverished its people, never attracted much attention or sympathy even in the Arab world. But 'Operation Cast Lead' has made the future of Gaza the first issue with which the incoming Obama administration will have to deal.

The Israeli ceasefire, conditional on Hamas stopping its ineffective but symbolically important rocket fire into Israel, seemed to throw the ball into Hamas's court. But the Hamas leadership in Damascus promptly responded by declaring their own week-long ceasefire dependant on an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and an end to the Israeli economic siege.

The war could restart. There will probably be more skirmishing. But the optimum moment for an Israeli military offensive is passing after the inauguration of President Barack Obama tomorrow. Whatever the Middle East policy of the new administration it is unlikely allow Israel the same carte blanche to pound Gaza as it had in the dying days of the Bush presidency.

Israeli tank crews were yesterday giving v for victory salutes with both their arms outstretched as sat on top of their vehicles but it is by no means clear what they have achieved. Large parts of Gaza have been smashed into rubble. An initial survey by UNWRA shows that 4,000 houses have been destroyed and 16,000 have been damaged. Much of the public administration and civil infrastructure has been destroyed. Police stations have gone as have such buildings as the Islamic university, the Palestinian Legislative Assembly and most of the ministries. Israel said it would destroy any structure connected with Hamas but Hamas won the Palestinian election in 2006 and has held total power in Gaza since it drove out Fatah in June 2007. In effect every public building in Gaza had some connection to Hamas and was therefore a potential target. The aim of this air and artillery assault appears to have been to teach the Palestinians of Gaza the lesson that they are totally at the mercy of Israel and there is nothing Hamas can do to defend them.

But as with Hezbullah in Lebanon in 2006 Palestinian anger at Hamas for provoking Israeli wrath is being balanced by a sense that Hamas is now the main vehicle for Palestinian nationalism. There is also little sign that Izzat al-Din al- Qassam Brigades, the military arm of Hamas, were ever really committed to battle in the heart of the urban areas which the Israeli army never penetrated. This means that Hamas's tight military control of the 1.5 million people of Gaza will remain as it was. The ineffectiveness of the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during the crisis has further discredited him and his Fatah movement in the eyes of Palestinians and his term in office ran out on 9 January making it even more difficult for the international community to pretend that he is the voice of Palestine.

For all Mr Olmert's euphoria over Israel's victory the three week war of 2008/9 has politically much in common with Israel's military forays into Lebanon in 1996 and 2006. Israelis are jubilant that this time round there were few military casualties unlike two years ago in Lebanon.

But politically the outcome of the two wars is not dissimilar. Politically Israel has shown its military strength but it has not decisively weakened Hamas.

Israel's aims in this war were always imprecise. Early rhetoric about destroying Hamas or breaking its rule of Gaza has died away. The Hamas rockets will stop flying - assuming the terms of its ceasefire are kept - because their fighters are told to stop firing them by their leaders and not because they are unable to launch them. As so often in the past Israel's tactical successes are not turning into political gain.

The Israeli defence minister Ehud Barak and the Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni have every incentive to sell their three week war as a victory when their parties go to the polls in the Israeli election on 10 February. Mr Olmert might one day revive his political career if he can sell the assault on Gaza as a great success. Israeli voters may well believe them but the signs of real victory are few enough.