Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock have to perform a delicate balancing act when it comes to Covid-19

As the clamour grows for tougher controls, ministers find themselves wondering if they are reacting now to a situation which has already moved on, writes Andrew Woodcock

Boris Johnson in front of the Commons Liaison Committee (AFP via Getty)

Tony Blair famously complained that, when trying to push through change as prime minister, he was often in the position of pulling a lever only to find that nothing happened.

Today’s batch of leaders, in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, have a slightly different version of the same problem.

When Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock pull a policy lever by introducing new restrictions to social and economic life, there’s no question that something happens.

Within days, or even hours, shops shut, restaurants empty, high streets are cleared and airports left idle.

Their problem is they then face a long, nervous wait to find out whether anything has worked or not, in a crisis where “wait and see” has time and again been shown not to be the best policy.

Because of the nature of the virus, a person picking up Covid-19 may not know about it for at least five to six days, when symptoms start to appear, and may then wait a further 10 to 12 days before going into hospital.

All of this means that the grim death tallies currently being released daily by the Department of Health largely relate to people infected before the current lockdown began, and many of them before Johnson U-turned on his promise of a five-day Christmas break from restrictions.

The effect of the national shutdown is yet to feed through into hospitalisation data, let alone starting to bring down death rates.

And as the clamour grows for tougher controls – whether closing nurseries, imposing mandatory mask-wearing or stopping joggers from taking a break on a park bench – ministers find themselves wondering if they are reacting now to a situation which has already moved on.

This may explain the government’s reluctance this week to step up curbs on behaviour, despite the PM’s admission that the NHS capacity risks being “overtopped”.

And it may explain why, after delivering this chilling warning, Johnson went on to tell the Liaison Committee that there were “some early signs of progress in restraining the growth of the virus, some signs perhaps of flattening and levelling off in some parts”.

Have they seen evidence that, despite the heartbreaking headlines about ever-mounting death tolls, lockdown has actually had an impact in driving down the virus? Or are they grasping at statistical wisps to bolster their own hopes of recovery?

The prime minister and the health secretary are performing a delicate balancing act, shaping policy on the basis of hints and clues about what may happen in a few weeks’ time. But it’s a balancing act they’ve too often got wrong, waiting to act until the need for restrictions is undeniable, when pulling on the brakes at the first hint of trouble could have saved thousands of lives.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor