Iran withdrawing from the nuclear deal could be the most dangerous consequence of the current crisis

A nuclear-armed Iran, sooner or later, now looks inevitable. It is something the world can little afford

Whatever impelled Donald Trump to order the assassination of a senior member of Iran’s ruling elite, the creation of a new nuclear power in the Middle East was probably not his intention. Yet Iran’s confirmation that it is to formally rescind the last remaining international obligations governing its nuclear programme seems set to do precisely that.

Whatever its weaknesses – and the Iranians were always inclined to push their luck – the 2015 international nuclear agreement between Iran, the United States, Russia, China and three European powers (the UK, France and Germany) did have the effect of at least restraining Tehran’s plans, and keeping them under some degree of international supervision. Although Iran has still not actually legally withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), to give its proper name, the deal is dead. This is a dangerous moment.

When the crowds at the obsequies for General Qassem Soleimani chant “death to America”, and Tehran promises “revenge” and to attack American assets, this is usually taken to mean it will pick one or more items from the usual menu of retaliation. Such high-profile and dramatic measures might include: seizure of western-owned oil tankers or other ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz; attacks on American and allied personnel, civilian and military, in the Middle East and possibly beyond; rockets fired at Saudi oil wells; and intensified harassment of dual nationality citizens held illegally in Iran, such as Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.