Can Joe Biden bounce back from the Iowa debacle?

There was never anything inevitable about his victory and the former vice president now faces a huge challenge, writes Andrew Buncombe

Biden in New Hampshire on Tuesday - his chances are not dead yet (Getty)

Don’t write me off just yet.

That’s what Joe Biden was saying when he attacked fellow Democrats Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg after coming in fourth place in Iowa. Most pundits following the race, had believed he was unlikely to do that well there, but he managed only 15 per cent of the votes based on partial returns, and currently has zero delegates.

“If senator Sanders is the nominee for the party, every Democrat in America up and down the ballot, in blue states, red states, purple states and easy districts and competitive ones, every Democrat will have to carry the label senator Sanders has chose for himself,” Biden said, speaking in the town of Somersworth, according to the Associated Press.

“I don’t criticise him, he calls himself a Democratic socialist. Well, we’re already seeing what Donald Trump is going to do with that.”

Meanwhile, he said he had tremendous respect for the 38-year-old Buttigieg, but believed he was too inexperienced to take on Trump. “It’s a risk, to be just straight up with you.”

The sharpening of his attacks underscore the anxiety in the Biden campaign after Iowa, whose caucuses turned to farce after an untested App was used to tabulate votes, and failed to work. On Tuesday, officials released 71 per cent of results, that showed Buttigieg on 27, Sanders on 25, Elizabeth Warren on 15 and then Biden on 15. More results are said to be released at any time.

An average of polls collated by RealClearPolitics for New Hampshire, which votes next Tuesday, puts Sanders first on 25, followed by Biden, 17, and Buttigieg and Warren, both on 14.

But those polls were taken before Iowa’s results were released. Candidates typically expect a boost to the numbers after securing a win. It appears Sanders and Buttigieg came out very close, and they might well do again in New Hampshire.

Biden’s chances are not dead yet. The Granite state has been the location of a number of bounce backs by political candidates, most famously Bill Clinton who stormed to a stunning second place there in 1992, after being in single digits in Iowa. He declared himself the “Comeback Kid”, and would go on to secure the nomination and the presidency. In 2008, Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire after being pummeled in Iowa by Barack Obama.

When politicians campaign with babies as photo-ops, it is often a bad sign (Getty)

In all likelihood, Biden’s best chances lie not in New Hampshire, but in the races in South Carolina and Nevada, which are also voting this month. Biden has a sizable lead in South Carolina, which has a large African American population, and a slim lead over Sanders in Nevada, which has a large Latino population.

By contrast, Buttigieg is polling in single digits in both states, and has been pushed into fifth place, behind not only the frontrunners, but long-shot Tom Steyer. Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has faced repeated criticism that he is failing to make traction among voters of colour.

But Biden may face bigger problems. The 77-year-old built his candidacy on the notion there was something inevitable about him becoming the nominee, and that he had the best chance of defeating Donald Trump.

In truth, there was never anything inevitable about Biden winning the presidency on his third attempt. If that veneer starts to come off at this early stage, it is not good.

Last Saturday, The Independent listened to Biden as he made his case to Iowa voters in Cedar Rapids, where dozens of people squeezed into the basketball court at the Roosevelt Creative Corridor Business Academy. Large red, white and blue signs saying “Joe” were plastered to the walls.

The former vice president delivered a decent, impassioned speech. His anger and outrage about how he felt Trump had treated the office of the presidency was genuine. “People all around the word are looking and asking what is happening to the American public.”

Helped by the likes of former secretary of state John Kerry, 76, a noticeably happier and more relaxed campaigner when he was contesting there himself in 2004, Biden talked of the work he and Obama had done, and claimed voters could get themselves a safe, unthreatening reset, simply by picking him.

To a question shouted at him by this news organisation as to how he could restore the nation’s credibility, he responded: “By becoming president.”

But Biden is not Obama. Indeed, Biden was among those left in the dust by the campaign of the junior senator from Illinois back in 2008.

Warm-eyed nostalgia for something that has passed is not the same as the real thing. Biden may be well-meaning and experienced. Up close he looks more energetic and less tired, than he does from a distance.

Yet, while people may respect Joe Biden, and while they may admire and even love him, few people find him exciting as a candidate. This is especially the case when compared to Sanders, Warren and even Buttigieg.

Biden’s campaign is not over yet. But it faces a massive fight.