Boris Johnson has followed in Labour’s footsteps in his handling of the NHS and social care crisis

The real danger to the prime minister’s plan came from his own side – but there was no sign of rebellion today, writes John Rentoul

Boris Johnson was home and dry by the time he arrived in the Commons (Parliamentlive.tv)

If Keir Starmer had asked a panel of left-wing economists to advise him on what Labour’s policy on the NHS, social care and tax should be, they would have come up with something remarkably similar to the announcement made by the prime minister today.

Boris Johnson’s ideologically flexible plan is even more “Labour” than the changes made by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in 2002, when they put up national insurance to pay for the NHS – laying the foundations for the health service being the best it has ever been by 2010. Unlike that tax rise, today’s plan extends the new levy to working pensioners who don’t currently pay national insurance contributions.

The new “health and social care levy” is not as fair as it could be, because it won’t be applied to rental income or to capital gains, but taxing people above the state pension age, many of whom are highly paid, meets one of the main objections to the use of national insurance rather than income tax.

Starmer and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, were also caught off-balance by the decision to raise the dividend tax by an equivalent amount, which pre-empted their demand that “wealthier people with income from stocks and shares” ought to pay more.

Indeed, the prime minister had won the argument before he even arrived in parliament. The real threat to him came not from the opposition but from his own party, many of whom are upset by the twin crimes of raising taxes and breaking a manifesto promise. One cabinet minister was quoted anonymously in the Sunday papers, railing about how unjust it was to tax the red wall to save the inheritances of Surrey homeowners. Yet when it came to it at this morning’s cabinet meeting, Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the House of Commons, objected to breaking the manifesto pledge, but did not feel strongly enough about it to resign.

Once the meeting was over, Johnson knew he was home free. He hadn’t given most of the cabinet much notice of his plan, but it seemed that he gave them enough time to work out that it wasn’t actually a tax on the low paid to subsidise the inheritances of the rich – most Surrey homeowners will find themselves above the £100,000 asset level entitling them to means-tested help. National insurance may not be the best way to raise the money to pay for it, but the better-off bear most of the burden, and it is almost as progressive as the main alternative, which is income tax. What is more, “national insurance” sounds better, and it is more popular with the voters.

Johnson decided to take the breach of the manifesto head on, instead of pretending that the new levy wasn’t covered by the promise not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT. He said: “Yes, this breaks a manifesto commitment, which is not something I do lightly, but a global pandemic was in no one’s manifesto, and I think the British people understand that in their bones.”

What was striking was that almost no Conservative MPs objected to the plan after the prime minister’s statement. One asked whether a different model, such as social insurance, might be better, but the overwhelming sentiment seemed to be relief that the government had finally grasped the nettle of social care, and that Johnson had put Starmer in a difficult position.

The plan will be voted through the Commons tomorrow. Labour will vote against, but there is no Tory rebellion to speak of. The measures will require further parliamentary votes, but they were not in doubt the moment this morning’s cabinet meeting was over.

Once again, the iron law of centrist politics has been demonstrated. Just as Blair adopted One Nation Conservative poses on crime, asylum and business, Johnson is now adopting New Labour poses on public services – including raising taxes to pay for them in ways that the electorate will accept. Just as Labour’s tax rise in 2002 for the NHS was seen as a breach of the spirit of its manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, but was accepted by the voters as necessary, this tax rise will be accepted too. In opinion polls, I suspect the people will say that it was the right thing to do.

It may become less popular in April next year, when people’s pay packets change, and it may become less popular after that when the NHS backlog proves slow to clear – one sharp thing Starmer did today was to demand a guarantee from the prime minister that the 18-week NHS wait target will be met by the next election.

Nothing will be fixed by the time of the next election, but it will be fought by two centre parties committed to a society that pays higher taxes than it has in the past for the quality of public services that people have come to expect.