Will Boris Johnson let the emergency rise in Universal Credit be cut in April?

The future of the higher rate of UC is in doubt, says John Rentoul. Rishi Sunak is likely to argue that a permanent increase in benefits cannot be afforded once Covid restrictions are lifted

Boris Johnson, as is traditional, wants to spend more, while Rishi Sunak wants to spend less (Reuters TV)

When the coronavirus crisis struck, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, took emergency action to avert hardship and boost the economy by raising universal credit by £20 a week. The rise was intended to be temporary, lasting until April, but soon he and Boris Johnson will have to decide what to do next. 

The rise was welcomed in all quarters. Despite a decade of Conservative cuts to welfare, the chancellor accepted that the furlough scheme would not cover everyone adversely affected by the lockdown and subsequent restrictions, and therefore that a simple increase to the standard allowance was fair. It was also another way of pumping money into the economy, and keeping more people in jobs as a result. 

The rise in universal credit is not as expensive as the furlough scheme, but it would cost £6.6bn a year, adding about a tenth to the cost of the benefit, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), on top of the increase in the number of families claiming universal credit in the crisis, up from 2.6 million to 4.2 million.