From productivity to entertainment, coronavirus will change our world more than we think

We will all be forced to reassess our lives, maybe in ways that will surprise even ourselves, writes Hamish McRae

Uncertainty has led to panic buying in stores across the country (EPA)

How will coronavirus change our lives in the long term? The pandemic is a shock on many levels and it will be hard to calibrate the scale of the change – or rather, we will have to keep recalibrating as new and more disturbing information comes in. But no matter the course, we can feel relief that this will end at some point. This is why it is worth asking about the long-term impact. So what do we know?

We know that shocks reinforce social and economic changes that are already taking place. The First World War sped up the emancipation of women; the Second World War speeded up the creation of the welfare state. Apply that now and there are several obvious examples that are already evident.

Top of the list is ordering goods online and having them delivered instead of physically shopping for them. In the UK 20 per cent of retail sales are online and the proportion is rising by a little over 1 percentage point a year. Ten years ago it was less than 10 per cent, and it peaked at 21.5 per cent in December, falling back to 19.9 per cent in January. Expect that to jump this spring and summer. It is plausible that it could reach 50 per cent or more in the coming weeks if many shops are forced to close. That will fall back as normal life resumes, but it will not come back to 20 per cent, and it could settle at one-third or more – though my guess would be more like 25 per cent.