Will we be full of the economic joys of spring when the season rolls around?

The uncertainties over the next three or four months are huge. But the financial markets have made up their minds that come the spring a rapid recovery will be in place, writes Hamish McRae

Elon Musk has become the third-richest American thanks to a recent surge in share prices (Getty Images)

Thanks to the surge in the price of Tesla shares, Elon Musk has become the third-richest American. Bully for him, but how do you reconcile booming share prices and a serious worsening of the Covid-19 pandemic across most of Europe and America?

The answer is that markets are looking through to next spring. The uncertainties over the next three or four months are huge. But the financial markets have made up their minds that come the spring a rapid recovery will be in place. Typically equity markets look six months ahead, or at least try to, for they are a very crude forward indicator. But with US shares now at record levels and UK and European shares recovering much of the ground lost earlier in the year, their message is clear: next year will be pretty good. Are they right?

The short answer is probably yes, but with three important qualifications, one of which is relevant to Elon Musk.