The big macroeconomic picture is becoming clearer – how we will live our lives is not

We have seen a V-shaped bounce-back recovery so far. But this doesn’t tell us where we might go next, writes Hamish McRae

We are flying blind when it comes to things like the future of the high street or the office (Getty)

The mists are clearing. This week, we are starting to get a clearer picture of how the UK and world economies are likely to develop over the next year. Just as important, we are also getting a better understanding of what we don’t know.

Focusing on the UK, we know the bottom of the recession was almost certainly in the first half of May. Both the government tax receipts and the real-time data (things like Google searches and credit card spending) confirm that. On Monday Andy Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, told the Treasury Select Committee: “Roughly half of the roughly 25 per cent fall in activity during March and April has been clawed back over the period since…. We have seen a bounce-back. So far, it has been a ‘V’.”

He added that this doesn’t tell us about where we might go next, but knowing that the bottom has been reached and that the economy so far is growing by about 1 per cent a week is a helpful start. So too is the evidence that international trade volumes have started to recover. Trade with China started to turn up in March, while global trade hit bottom in April.