How to come out of lockdown? Follow Germany’s lead

It looks likely that the country will progressively resume normal life, creating a template for the US and the rest of Europe, writes Hamish McRae

Angela Merkel has spent the past week considering a step-by-step reopening (Reuters)

The world is starting to get back to work, and the best guides for how to do so are coming from China and, in a few days’ time, Germany.

In the US, the New York governor Andrew Cuomo has formed a task force with five other states to figure out how to reopen the economy of the northeast, while on the west coast Gavin Newsom, governor of California, has joined with his counterparts in Washington and Oregon to work together, too.

In Europe, there have been a number of small steps. The Czech Republic has eased social distancing; Denmark reopens primary schools today; Austria has started to reopen smaller shops; Spain has made a start on getting people back to work, too.

But many other countries have just extended their shutdowns. France will do so for another four weeks, and the UK is expected to extend its controls when the cabinet meets on Thursday. Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister​, has just announced he will keep his 1.3 billion citizens under tight controls until 3 May.

So where is the best model for the US and Europe? Small countries can be a useful testing ground, and what happens not only in Austria and Denmark but also in Singapore and Hong Kong will be helpful. But it is harder in larger countries to manage a phased recovery, which is why China and Germany matter so much: China because that is where it all began, and Germany because it has performed better than the rest of Europe in containing the disease.

It is difficult to get a clear picture of what is really happening in China. It is becoming clear that it has had the worst three months since it began publishing quarterly data in 1992, and probably since the economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978. China’s recently-released trade figures for March were a little better than expected, and that gave a boost to the markets. But Wuhan has just emerged from total lockdown, and the key has been progressive easing – keeping some neighbourhoods and some buildings closed – the decisions based on a mixture of testing, isolation and contact-tracing.

That has established the principles of what you should do. But while we know the outline, the quality of information that has been coming out has been so uneven, that the best practical guide is Germany, which has the advantage that both its infection and death rates have been falling sharply for a week.

The German government has spent the past week considering a plan developed by the Ifo Institute, one of the country’s leading economic research groups, on a step-by-step reopening. Over the weekend, the work of the Ifo experts was reinforced by recommendations from the Academy of Sciences Leopoldina. These were sent by Armin Laschet, governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, to chancellor Angela Merkel and other state leaders. Among the suggestions is a gradual loosening of rules on social distancing, and reopening smaller shops. The present German restrictions expire on 19 April – this coming weekend – so a decision has to be taken this week.

We will see what Germany does. But it looks likely it will indeed start a progressive resumption of normal life, and that will create a tested template for the US and the rest of Europe. Because Germany has contained the outbreak more effectively than other major western economies and reached its decisions through the democratic process, what it does will have an authority that China does not. The world should learn from China, but it should follow the German example.