Johnson has survived, the moment to depose him has passed – and there are three reasons he is in a stronger position than before

His political future was already no longer at immediate risk, but there was a widespread assumption that he would receive more penalty notices. Not now, writes John Rentoul

We still have the Sue Gray report to look forward to (PA)

The Metropolitan Police inquiry is complete – and Boris Johnson has received no more penalty notices. His total, from a four-month investigation that at one point threatened to bring him down, is just one fine, for what appears to be the least serious illegal gathering, when he was ambushed with a birthday cake in between meetings two years ago.

His political future was already no longer at immediate risk, but there was a widespread assumption that he would receive more penalty notices, which would have kept the “prime minister, law-breaker” story going at a low level. Now it is stuttering to its conclusion.

We still have the Sue Gray report to look forward to, probably next week. But that is now much less dangerous to Johnson than it was, despite the colourful anonymous briefings about how it will be “very bad” for him. I cannot be sure, but it may be that those briefings were designed to manage expectations on behalf of the prime minister. When Gray’s report is published and repeats many of the criticisms of her interim, filleted report, the effect is likely to be anti-climactic.