It’s a cliffhanger – but the real question is whether Rishi Sunak can persuade Tory members

I understand that, if there is a tie for second place tomorrow, there would be a further ballot ‘as soon as possible’, writes John Rentoul

We still do not know the shape of the final stage of the contest (Reuters)

The fourth ballot of Conservative MPs has set up a knife-edge contest for the fifth ballot tomorrow. Liz Truss has closed the gap between her and Penny Mordaunt from 11 votes to six. If she makes the same progress tomorrow, in picking up more votes from Kemi Badenoch, who was eliminated today, she will be one vote short of making the final two names who will go to party members.

I understand that, if there is a tie for second place tomorrow, there would be a further ballot “as soon as possible”, presumably on Wednesday evening.

So we still do not know the shape of the final stage of the contest, but the YouGov poll of Conservative Party members carried out yesterday and today suggests that whichever of Ms Mordaunt and Ms Truss faces Rishi Sunak would win. The poll puts Ms Mordaunt 14 points ahead of Mr Sunak and Ms Truss 19 points ahead of him.