They think it’s all over for Rishi Sunak – it is now

Maybe his chance will come again, but for now it’s finished, writes John Rentoul

He could be prime minister in an alternative universe (AFP/Getty)

If William Hague hadn’t felt so threatened by Michael Portillo, Rishi Sunak would be prime minister by now. Portillo was expected to become Conservative leader after the 1997 election, but lost his seat. So Hague became leader instead. Hague pretended to welcome Portillo’s imminent return to the Commons in a by-election, but in the meantime, reinforced his position by rewriting the rules for leadership elections.

Previously, any MP could trigger a contest if two other MPs proposed and seconded their nomination, and the result would be decided by the votes of MPs alone. In 1998, the party adopted new rules that required 15 per cent of MPs to request a vote of confidence in their leader. Only if that vote was lost would an election be held, in which MPs would choose a shortlist of two, with party members making the final decision.

When Portillo did return, in the Kensington and Chelsea by-election in November 1999, he was made shadow chancellor. There was constant friction between the leader and his unofficial deputy for the rest of that parliament, but Hague’s rule-change was successful in preventing a challenge. When Hague resigned, after the 2001 election defeat, Portillo failed by one vote to make the final two whose names were put to party members – who chose Iain Duncan Smith over Kenneth Clarke.