Epidemic dying out but questions remain

The future

After nearly 15 years as an "official" disease, BSE is dying out in Britain - although other countries around Europe are now suffering.

After nearly 15 years as an "official" disease, BSE is dying out in Britain - although other countries around Europe are now suffering.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (Maff), there were just 117 confirmed cases of BSE in July - the lowest monthly figure recorded. That rose slightly, to 133, last month, but the disease is clearly on the way to disappearing almost entirely some time next year.

Whether there will ever be zero cases is impossible to say - although some scientists think that it is endemic. It can be passed from mother to calf and the inquiry said yesterday that the most likely initial cause was a gene mutation. That means that it could arise again without warning; similar forms of genetically induced CJD are known in humans and affect a few people every year.

The big unknown is what will happen to the epidemic - as it officially is to scientists - in humans. When the first announcements of the link between BSE and "new variant" CJD (now vCJD) were made, people wanted to know how many had been infected and would die. Since 1996 Maff has been trying to trace where the infected cattle might have gone and what food would have been most infected.

So far, 80 people have died of vCJD. Earlier this year studies based on the number of cases suggested the total will probably be in the hundreds but there is no way to be certain. Unanswered questions remain. Does it only affect younger people? Are they more susceptible? What foods were the riskiest? Why have there been four cases of vCJD in a Leicestershire village? On those, only time will tell - if it does at all.