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General Eddington circles the wagons and rallies his troops

The Mother of all jobs; Nuclear goes critical

Tuesday 10 September 2002 00:00 BST
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General Rod Eddington is amassing a warchest at British Airways. Not to fight a war but to survive one. This time a year ago, the business was on cruise control and Rod had his eye on a campaign of expansion. Perhaps a transatlantic merger with American Airlines. Perhaps even the conquest of one of BA's weaker competitors elsewhere in Europe.

September 11 changed all that and as the first anniversary of those terrible events draws near, the increasingly likelihood of war in Iraq gives the planners in BA's Waterside bunker something new and even more dangerous to worry about. Now, it is time to circle the wagons and dig some slit trenches into that lovingly landscaped setting.

As all good generals realise, no military plan survives contact with the enemy and any number of scenarios are being worked on back at BA headquarters. But judging by the semaphore signals emerging from the airline, the central assumption is that this war will be quite different from the one George Dubya's father fought in 1991 when Saddam left his artillery in the desert to be pounded day and night by American air power. That in turn means the impact on the airline industry is likely to be perceptibly different.

The Gulf war led to a 30 per cent decline in air traffic but a year later the industry was back to where it had been before Desert Storm began. A less precipitate but a more prolonged downturn in the market seems to be BA's best guess this time. The good news is that BA's finances are in better shape than they were before the Twin Towers were struck a year ago. There is something like £1.5bn in the kitty and the warchest should have swollen more by the time the Americans, with or without United Nations backing, begin bombing Baghdad again.

BA is also a different animal. It has shed 8,000 staff, it has ended the folly of trying to run Gatwick as a hub airport alongside Heathrow, it has got rid of loss-making subsidiaries and and it has begun to tackle the terminal lack of profitability in its short-haul operation.

But it remains vulnerable on its flanks. The BA workforce is agitating for better pay and, although Rod has settled with the engineers, it will take all of his blunt Aussie charm to avoid hand-to-hand combat with the pilots.

Furthermore BA has hardly begun to see off the enemy challenge from the likes of Ryanair and easyJet. BA still only sells 30 per cent of its direct short-haul economy flights through the internet compared with the 90 per cent plus levels now being achieved by its low-cost rivals.

In other words, its short-haul cost base is still miles too high and it can kiss goodbye to the bankers' shuttle returning across the Atlantic if the firing starts in earnest this side of Christmas.

Mr Eddington may have worked hard to ensure that BA is better placed to survive a new Gulf conflict than some other flag carriers But as the drumbeat of war in Washington has grown louder, so has BA's share price tumbled and it is easy to see why.

The Mother of all jobs

Here's a suggestion for Mothercare, the stumbling toddler of the retail scene which is struggling to make its mind up about a new chief executive. Why not appoint a woman to the job? Preferably one who has children. In other words: why not appoint a mother to run Mothercare?

The business has been run of late by middle aged, male chartered accountants who wouldn't know a breast pad from a shoulder pad and think a double buggy is something found on a golf course.

After ousting Chris Martin (male, middle-aged chartered accountant) it seemed that Mothercare was putting its money on Terry Green, the former Bhs chief executive. But he now seems to have thrown his rattle out of the pram as the Mothercare board dithers and shareholders watch their investment wither away.

Of course it may have been the terms Mr Green was seeking (12.5 per cent of the action) that induced a bout of colic in the board's digestion system. But talented though he is Mr Green would be represent another in a long line of male appointments to this unique job in UK retailing.

It would be nice to know that the Mothercare short-list at least contained some female candidates. But all the company was saying yesterday was that no final decision has been made, that a number of candidates are still being considered and that an announcement should be made before the end of the month.

If the new recruit does turn out to be male, he should at the very least employ some female consultants or hold a few focus groups with customers. They might tell him a few home truths.

One is that Mothercare's large out-of-town stores of which the company seems so proud are still a major disappointment and have clearly been designed by someone who has never gone shopping with children. The shopping experience is actually worse than when Mothercare bought out Children's World from Boots a few years back. Lifts shaped like trees lead excited toddlers to toy areas where there are no toys to play with as they are all still packaged neatly in their boxes. The toy car displays bear the sign "please do not touch".

Even Ann Iveson (remember her) could, have taught the current Mothercae management a thing or two. The new chief executive has his (or her) work cut out.

Nuclear goes critical

It takes a certain desperate sense of humour to work in the nuclear industry these days. The best gloss British Energy's spokesman could put on yesterday's relisting of the shares was that it at least gave investors a chance to trade out of the stock. Those who could find a buyer did so in their droves. Not, however, at the 750p the shares fetched three years ago, nor even the 80p they were worth last Thursday but at 28p if they were lucky and 13p if they were not.

The speed with which British Energy has gone from being a dull old utility with secure cash flows and a safe dividend to a basket case which cannot even pay the wages without an immediate government loan is startling by any standards.

British Energy has already as good as told its 230,000-strong army of small investors that there will nothing left for them even if it survives a long-term restructuring.

Patricia Hewitt, who has reluctantly stuck her finger in the nuclear dyke, raised the prospect of the company entering administration herself yesterday. But the question of who would be interested in the assets unless the Government relieved them of British Energy's £14bn in undiscounted liabilities was conveniently sidestepped.

The new management is enthusiastically blaming the old for overpaying for coal-fired capacity and failing to build and then hang on to a retail supply business to act as a natural hedge against falling generator prices. But it is the executive chairman Robin Jeffrey who has presided over the meltdown in the share price. The fuel rod stops with him and he will have to go.

m.harrison@independent.co.uk

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