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Scottish referendum results: Global investors, businesses and the City have their victory as Scotland says 'No'

 

Jim Armitage
Friday 19 September 2014 09:26 BST
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The campaign has left much of Scotland divided
The campaign has left much of Scotland divided (Reuters)

After the shrillest campaign of fear from the financial and corporate community since the banks' great lobbying against reforms after they caused the financial crisis, the Scottish people decided to vote "no". They have decided, as City traders would say, to adopt a "risk off" strategy.

The reaction of investors has been predictably jubilant this morning - a rallying pound and shares expected to push to new record highs.

Investors and business people hate uncertainty more than almost any other event. They have to deploy, in some cases, billions of pounds into long term strategies. Their whole raison d'etre is to keep the risks of those investments being damaged by shifting tax regimes, moving currencies, gyrating economies, to an absolute minimum.

There was no doubt that a Yes vote would have resulted in months of uncertainty - right up to, and beyond, the implementation of the split (set absurdly optimistically at 18 months hence).

But what would have happened thereafter? Despite the volume of noise to the contrary, possibly not the armageddon that the majority of the business lobby had predicted.

More compelling, perhaps, was the argument that a bigger country is more likely to be able to negotiate better than two smaller ones and attract more overseas investors to its shores.

For now, though - until the Scottish blood rises again in a decade or so - all these arguments can be put to bed. Just like the knackered looking TV pundits and politicians.

Investors can get back to their work of driving share prices to absurd new record highs, ignoring the fact that western economies are only being kept alive by the finite policies of their central banks. And that's before you start thinking about the possibility of Britain's exit from the EU. Never mind a Scottish secession, there are plenty of more real risks elsewhere.

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