Airport expansion is essential to avoid damaging economy, insists airports commissioner

Iif no expansion takes place, “you could start to see some quite unpleasant things happening economically”

An passenger jet preparing to land at Gatwick Airport in West Sussex (PA)

Runway capacity in south-east England must expand or “unpleasant things” will happen to the economy, according to the chair of the Airports Commission. Sir Howard Davies made the warning as he released his latest report on the aviation squeeze - which shows estimates for new runways at Heathrow and Gatwick are billions below the likely cost.

Sir Howard was unveiling a consultation document on the three shortlisted options for expansion in the London area. The options comprise a second runway at Gatwick, and two schemes for a third runway at Heathrow. Sir Howard told The Independent that if no expansion takes place, “you could start to see some quite unpleasant things happening economically”.

The latest report of the commission concludes that each of the options may cost significantly more than the backers’ estimates. It says a second runway at Gatwick could cost £9.3bn, one quarter more than the Sussex airport’s estimate of £7.bn.

Heathrow Airport Holdings, which runs Europe’s busiest airport, puts the cost of its preferred solution - a third runway north of the existing pair - at £14.8bn. But the Davies Commission believes that the likely cost is also 25 per cent higher than predicted, at £18.6bn.

The third option is the “Heathrow Hub” proposal to extend the northern runway at the airport to four miles or more, enabling it to be operated as two separate runways. Its proponents, led by Jock Lowe, a former British Airways Concorde pilot, estimate its cost at £10.1bn. But the commission believes the real cost would be £13.5bn.

How Heathrow Airport's planned third runway might look (PA)

Sir Howard Davies has drawn upon evidence of cost overruns from previous large infrastructure projects to correct for “optimism bias".
The three contenders each claimed that the latest report showed momentum building for their case.

Heathrow’s chief executive John Holland-Kaye said: “Business is telling the Commission that Heathrow is geographically in the best location [and] is the only airport that can deliver flights to the world's growth markets.”

Earlier, the airport revealed its busiest-ever October, handling more than 200,000 passengers a day on average.

Jock Lowe said his Heathrow Hub plan would “increase available airport capacity by 40 per cent, minimise environmental impact and avoid bringing any significant new communities into the noise footprint”.

Stewart Wingate, chief executive of Gatwick Airport, said: “I don’t think that Heathrow will ever deliver a third runway in my lifetime. So it then comes down to the question: will the politicians agree to Gatwick?”