Nice place, Canary Wharf. Shame about the transport

The Jubilee Line and Docklands Light Railway are already bursting, and more workers are on their way. What lies ahead for east London's commuters?

Internal links

Canary Wharf in cash aid pledge to CrossRail project

Hot, sweaty and claustrophobic ­ commuters travelling to London's Canary Wharf at rush hour have a lot to endure to arrive at what is Britain's smartest and most modern office development.

The Tube and light railway lines are already packed, sometimes unreliable, but are the only viable public transport route into the glittery Docklands scheme. The bad news for the 41,000 people who work at Canary Wharf is that things are going to get worse, which could threaten the status of what is rapidly becoming Britain's new financial centre.

Canary Wharf is only half finished. New towers are springing up every month as tenants turn their backs on the crowded City and sign up for new towers in east London.

Some 14,500 extra workers will relocate to the development next year when HSBC and Citigroup move into their new skyscrapers, which are almost completed. But figures obtained by The Independent on Sunday show that the number of extra workers in the office blocks could soon outstrip the present capacity of the Jubilee Line Underground and the Docklands Light Railway (see below).

Jim Steer, managing director of transport consultant Steer Davies Gleeve, which has worked on a number of projects for Canary Wharf, says: "In the short term, things will be OK. But in the long term the area is not going to cope without any new transport facilities. One day someone will not get a development permit because of the transport situation."

Transport, which is rapidly becoming the chink in Canary Wharf's shiny armour, could put off potential tenants. Alan Patterson, property analyst at HSBC, says: "At the moment, there is not a big problem. But at some point the crunch will come. Potential occupiers may say 'no thanks' to Canary Wharf even at cheaper rents."

Canary Wharf, run by the respected George Iacobescu, is aware of its problems. It has launched legal action against London Underground, which the developer claims has failed to deliver the promised number of trains in the Jubilee Line. It is also lobbying the Government to extend the proposed CrossRail line ­ that will run from west to east London ­ to Canary Wharf. And it is banking on the DLR, run by Serco, significantly increasing its number of trains.

It is far from certain that these measures to enhance capacity will come off. So just how close is Canary Wharf to transport chaos? Robert John is the Canary Wharf executive charged with sorting out transport at the FTSE 100 property company. He comes with pedigree, having originally proposed the Jubilee Line extension to the east. "I am probably the least concerned person in the world," he says confidently. "The issue sometimes flares up and people say, 'oh my God, there is nothing in the pipeline'. But each time we have delivered what we promised."

He has two arguments as to why Canary Wharf will escape any major transport problems. First, he believes that there is a sufficient political imperative ­ not least from Ken Livingstone, an unlikely ally for Canary Wharf's capitalists ­ to increase the number of trains on the Jubilee Line to Canary Wharf. "The mayor's office knows that it needs to meet the requirements of major financial services tenants that are critical to London's well- being." He also argues that on London Underground's list of priorities, fixing the Jubilee Line is high up because of the relative small cost to large- benefit ratio.

His second argument is based on demographics. More people, he says, are travelling to Canary Wharf from east London. In two weeks Canary Wharf is due to release results of a transport study, which is expected to reveal that more than 50 per cent of commuters travel from areas east of St Paul's Cathedral. In particular, many commuters are travelling from such places as Stratford, where there is spare capacity on the transport network.

"My first 10 years were spent worrying about transport access from the west. I will spend the next 10 years worrying about access from the east," Mr John says.

If he's right, and more commuters will travel from the east, then this will increase pressure on the DLR. Chaired by Ian Brown, the DLR last week revealed plans to extend its service to Woolwich Arsenal, in south-east London. The company also hopes to introduce new 24 new trains on its network next year. Further down the line, it is looking into whether it could extend the length of each train by one third. A spokeswoman for the DLR says: "Canary Wharf is one of the reasons why the new trains are on order. But there is no point in denying the fact that the service is getting more crowded. There is only so much we can do."

The long-term answer is, therefore, a new rail line to the area. Canary Wharf is betting on CrossRail. The plan to build a rail line through central London from east to west has been on the drawing board for 15 years, and it will be at least another 10 before it is built, if at all, but the logic of a loop to Canary Wharf is clear. "If you scratch your head and think about it, then the obvious route is from Heathrow to the West End, through the City, to Docklands and then east," says Mr John.

Whether CrossRail is extended to Canary Wharf boils down to money. It would cost an estimated extra £1bn to bring it to Docklands, and the Government would want some contribution from the private sector. How this is done would be hugely controversial. But Canary Wharf says it is willing to contribute, so long as the way the money collected is fair.

So, will travelling to Canary Wharf on the public transport deteriorate in the short term? The answer is probably yes. Will transport reach crisis point? Maybe. And this is the irony of Canary Wharf. For a development scheme where the detail of each building is scrutinised, having a question mark over something as fundamental as transport makes it seem like an afterthought.

Canary Wharf: why the sums don't add up

The present

Around 80 per cent of Canary Wharf workers travel by Underground or DLR. The total number alighting at Canary Wharf per weekday is 47,000. This is made up of...

Jubilee Line: 30,000 people get off at Canary Wharf on an average weekday. At rush hour, the Tube is at capacity.

Docklands Light Railway: People alighting at Canary Wharf: 17,000.

The future

There is still some potential future passenger capacity on both transport systems.

Jubilee Line: Could take around 8,000 more people a day to Canary Wharf if London Underground corrects the signalling problems.

DLR: Has potential capacity through extra trains to carry about 5,800 more passengers a day by May 2002.

But...

Some 41,000 people work in Canary Wharf. This could rise to 55,500 by the end of 2002.

By 2006, the number is estimated to be 90,000, nearly 50 per cent more than the present transport capacity. On top of this, there are plans to develop areas around Canary Wharf, including South Quay and the Dome site, which will put further pressure on the transport infrastructure.